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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201512



BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4%
Posted: December 31, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 19 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4 percent to 98.4. This week’s drop was driven by production indexes. Lumber and coal production, for instance, fell by 2.7 and 4.9 percent, respectively, after reporting solid gains in the previous week. Likewise, truck production dipped by 5.8 percent ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index falls 5.8 points to 42.9 in December
Posted: December 31, 2015 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business Barometer contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009, falling 5.8 points to 42.9 in December from 48.7 in November.

It has been a volatile year for the Barometer. New Orders and Production have experienced particularly large swings with businesses never recovering fully from a sharp plunge at the beginning of the year. The Barometer’s December print is 16.5 points beneath the January ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 20,000 to 287,000
Posted: December 31, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 272,500. There were no special factors impacting this ...


Pending Home Sales Index declined slightly in November
Posted: December 30, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales in November slightly declined for the third time in four months as buyers continue to battle both rising home prices and limited homes available for sale, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Modest gains in the Midwest and South were offset by larger declines in the Northeast ...


Consumer Confidence Improved in December to 96.5
Posted: December 29, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased moderately in November, improved in December. The Index now stands at 96.5 (1985=100), up from 92.6 in November. The Present Situation Index increased from 110.9 last month to 115.3 in December, while the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.1% in October
Posted: December 29, 2015 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.2% annual increase in October 2015 versus a 4.9% increase in September 2015. The 10-City Composite increased ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Rises Again, but Outlook Worsens
Posted: December 28, 2015 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for a third month in a row in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 5.2 to 13.4, indicating stronger growth ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rebounded by 1.6%
Posted: December 24, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 12 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rebounded by 1.6 percent to 98.8. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, picked up by 3.9 percent following a sharp loss of 6.1 percent in the previous week. Railroad freight car loadings as well posted ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 5,000 to 267,000
Posted: December 24, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 271,000 to 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 272,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 490,000
Posted: December 23, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in November 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.3 percent (±11.9%)* above the revised October rate of 470,000 and is 9.1 percent (±20.9%)* above the ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in December to 92.6
Posted: December 23, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer confidence rose to its highest level since July, with the December reading nearly equal to the 2015 average of 92.9 which was the highest since 2004. The December gain was largely due to lower inflation, which bolstered real incomes and brightened buying plans for household durables. Indeed, there have been only three surveys in more ...


Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.3%
Posted: December 23, 2015 at 09:02 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income increased $44.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $34.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $40.1 billion, or 0.3 percent. In October, personal income increased $66.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, ...


November New Orders for Durable Goods unchanged%, Ex-Trans down 0.1%
Posted: December 23, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $238.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months,followed a 2.9 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 23, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 18, 2015.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 11 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 9 points to a reading of 6
Posted: December 22, 2015 at 11:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew modestly in December, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The volume of new orders picked up in December, while shipments flattened. Manufacturing employment strengthened this month and average wages rose moderately, while the average workweek lengthened. ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 10.5% in November
Posted: December 22, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales dropped off considerably in November to the slowest pace in 19 months, but some of the decrease was likely because of an apparent rise in closing timeframes that may have pushed some transactions into December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw sales declines ...


3Q2015 GDP final estimate increased 2.0%
Posted: December 22, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...


Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Activity remained positive in December
Posted: December 22, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Regional nonmanufacturing activity remained positive in December, according to firms responding to this month's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for current regional activity rose, while the index for current firm-level activity showed little change. The diffusion index for prices received fell, but the indicators ...


Chicago Fed National Activity slowed in November
Posted: December 21, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.20 in November from –0.18 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined moderately in December
Posted: December 18, 2015 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined moderately in December, reversing gains from the last several months, while producers’ expectations for future activity remained solid. Most price indexes continued to ease further.

The month-over-month composite index was -9 in December, down from 1 in November and -1 in October (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The decline ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in November
Posted: December 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 124.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in October, and no change in September.

“The U.S. LEI registered another increase in November, with building permits, the interest rate spread, and stock prices driving the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the six-month growth ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 1.0%
Posted: December 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 5 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 1.0 percent to 97.2. This week’s sharp drop was driven by weak performances in both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for example, plunged by 6.1 percent as a result of the early December-spending lull (because retailers tend to pull forward ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 11,000 to 271,000
Posted: December 17, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 271,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 270,500, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 270,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


3Q2015 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: December 17, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current-account deficit—a net measure of transactions between the United States and the rest of the world in goods, services, primary income (investment income and compensation), and secondary income (current transfers)—increased to $124.1 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2015 from $111.1 billion (revised) in the ...


Philadelphia December Outlook Weakens Further
Posted: December 17, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity, which was slightly positive last month, fell into negative territory. The indexes for new orders and shipments were mixed. Firms reported slight increases in ...


Federal Open Market Committee Press Conference
Posted: December 16, 2015 at 02:30 PM (Wednesday)

FOMC target funds range raised to 1/4 - 1/2%
Posted: December 16, 2015 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.6%
Capacity Utilization fell to 77.0%

Posted: December 16, 2015 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production declined 0.6 percent in November after decreasing 0.4 percent in October. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged from October. The index for utilities dropped 4.3 percent, as unusually warm weather held down the demand for heating. The index for mining fell 1.1 percent in November, with much of this ...


November Housing Starts up 10.5%, Permits up 11.0%
Posted: December 16, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 11.0 percent (±1.6%) above the revised October rate of 1,161,000 and is 19.5 percent (±2.0%) above the November 2014 estimate of 1,079,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 16, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 11, 2015.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2015
Posted: December 15, 2015 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2015. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $68.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $104.9 billion, ...


Builder Confidence dropped one point in December to 61
Posted: December 15, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes remained relatively flat in December, dropping one point to 61 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Overall, builders are optimistic about the housing market, although they are reporting concerns with the high price of lots and labor,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo. ...


Consumer Price Index was unchanged% in November, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: December 15, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for energy and food declined in November, offsetting an increase in the index for all items less food and energy and resulting in the seasonally adjusted all items index being unchanged. The energy index fell 1.3 percent, with all of the major component indexes ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in November
Posted: December 15, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings, combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Continue to Worsen in December
Posted: December 15, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The December 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a fifth consecutive month for New York manufacturers. However, the pace of decline slowed somewhat: the headline general business conditions index, though still negative, moved up six points to -4.6. New orders continued to drop, but ...


Business Inventories virtually unchanged% in October
Posted: December 11, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,317.7 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2%) from September 2015 and was down 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.3% in November, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: December 11, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and 0.5 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index fell 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November increase 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.4%
Posted: December 11, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $448.1 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 1.4 percent (±0.7%) above November 2014. ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.2%
Posted: December 10, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 28 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.2 percent to 98.2, extending the positive trend for three weeks in a row. This week’s increase was driven by gains in both consumption and production indexes. MBA’s purchase index, for instance, picked up by 7.7 percent after falling by 0.5 percent in the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 13,000 to 282,000
Posted: December 10, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 282,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 269,000. The 4-week moving average was 270,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 269,250. There were no special factors impacting this ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.4% in November
Posted: December 10, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports fell 0.4 percent in November following a 0.3-percent decline in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A decrease in import fuel prices drove the November decline in the price index for overall imports. U.S. export prices declined 0.6 percent in November, after a 0.2-percent decrease the ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.1% in October
Posted: December 9, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that October 2015 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $448.0 billion, virtually unchanged (+/-0.5%)* from the revised September level, but were down 3.7 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 9, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 4, 2015. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the ...


Job Openings were little changed at 5.4 million in October
Posted: December 8, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9 percent for the seventh consecutive month, and the layoffs ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 94.8
Posted: December 8, 2015 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism was fell 1.3 points in November, dropping the Index to 94.8, this after three months of no change of any significance. Clearly the small business sector has no expansion energy. Still well below the 42 year average, the Index continues to signal a “plodding” economy, responding to population growth and ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.50%
Posted: December 7, 2015 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/2 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index decreased in November to 128.69
Posted: December 7, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in November. The index now stands at 128.69, down from 129.75 in October (an upward revision). The change represents a 2.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“Despite the strong numbers on job creation in the past few months, the Employment Trends Index posted the largest one month decline since the Great Recession, with five of the eight components contributing negatively to the index,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of ...


November Employment increased by 211,000
Unemployment Rate remains at 5.0%

Posted: December 4, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Mining and information ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in October 2015
Posted: December 4, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $43.9 billion in October from $42.5 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased more than imports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.9 billion in October, up $1.4 billion from $42.5 billion in September, revised. October exports were $184.1 ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.5% in October
Posted: December 3, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $6.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $473.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.8 percent September decrease.

Shipments, down six of the last seven months, decreased $2.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $475.2 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent September decrease. ...



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