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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201907



FOMC target funds rate lowered to 2.00% - 2.25%
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased by 5.3 points to 44.4 in July
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, eased further to 44.4 in July from 49.7 last month, the second sub-50 reading in 30 months.

Four of the five components were in contraction territory this month, with only Supplier Deliveries above 50. ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.6% in 2Q2019
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent and benefit costs increased 0.5 percent from March ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 156,000 jobs in July
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 156,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®.

“While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.” ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.1 ...


Pending Home Sales Index Increased 2.8% in June
Posted: July 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Pending home sales continued to ascend in June, marking two consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions recorded a rise in contract activity, with the West experiencing the highest surge.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, moved up 2.8% to 108.3 in June, up from 105.4 in May. Year-over-year contract signings jumped 1.6%, snapping a 17-month streak of annual decreases. ...


Consumer Confidence rebounded in July to 135.7
Posted: July 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

he Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rebounded in July, following a decrease in June. The Index now stands at 135.7 (1985=100), up from 124.3 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 164.3 to 170.9. The Expectations Index – based on ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.8% in May
Posted: July 30, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual gain in May, down from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.2%, down from 2.3% in the ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.3%
Posted: July 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Personal income increased $83.6 billion (0.4 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $69.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.0 billion ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.18 in July
Posted: July 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch for July shows a slight decline in job growth and a fourth consecutive month of accelerated wage growth. The national jobs index stands at 98.18, down 0.15 percent from last month and 1.18 percent below its pace in July 2018. The deceleration in job growth follows a 0.45 percent decrease ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues Moderate Expansion in July
Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved from 8.9 to 9.3, indicating output growth continued at roughly the same pace as ...


2Q2019 GDP advance estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: July 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Bureau's second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was dipped in July
Posted: July 25, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely unchanged in July, while expectations for future activity remained moderately positive. The price index for raw materials increased from both last month and a year ago. Prices received for finished products were ...


June New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.0%, Ex-Trans up 1.2%
Posted: July 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $4.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $246.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 2.3 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 206,000
Posted: July 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


New Home Sales in June at annual rate of 646,000
Posted: July 24, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 646,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.0 percent (±15.2 percent)* above the revised May rate of 604,000 and is 4.5 percent ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 24, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 19, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


Existing-Home Sales dropped 1.7% in June
Posted: July 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales weakened in June, as total sales saw a small decline after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. While two of the four major U.S. regions recorded minor sales jumps, the other two – the South and the West – experienced greater declines ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 2 to -12 in July
Posted: July 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity weakened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 2 in June to −12 in July, its lowest reading since January 2013, as all three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — registered declines. Backlogs of orders also fell, reaching a value ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Expanded in July
Posted: July 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the July Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an expansion of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level and the index for sales/revenues both gained after two consecutive months of decline, while the new orders index increased for the second consecutive month. ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to economic growth near trend in June
Posted: July 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary July Results slightly higher to 98.4
Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in early July from June, remaining at quite favorable levels since the start of 2017. Moreover, the variations in Sentiment Index have been remarkably small, ranging from 91.2 to 101.4 in the past 30 months. Perhaps the most interesting change in the July survey was in inflation expectations, with ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.3% in June
Posted: July 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3 percent in June to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in May, and a 0.1 percent increase in April.

“The US LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “For ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 8,000 to 216,000
Posted: July 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 209,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity recovered sharply in July
Posted: July 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed improvement this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and increased from their June readings. Most of the survey’s future activity indexes ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: July 17, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace overall from mid-May through early July, with little change from the prior reporting period. In most Districts, sales of retail goods increased slightly overall, although vehicle sales were flat. Activity in the nonfinancial services sector rose further. ...


June Housing Starts decreased 0.9%, Permits down 6.1%
Posted: July 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000. This is 6.1 percent (±1.2 percent) below the revised May rate of 1,299,000 and is 6.6 percent (±1.1 percent) below the June 2018 rate of 1,306,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 17, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2019. Last week's results included an adjustment for the Fourth of ...


Treasury International Capital Data for May 2019
Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for May 2019. The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $32.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $73.5 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories up 0.2% in May
Posted: July 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,461.4 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from April 2019 and was up 1.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose one point to 65 in July
Posted: July 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 65 in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This marks the sixth consecutive month that sentiment levels have held at a steady range in the low- ...


Industrial Production unchanged%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 77.9%

Posted: July 16, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production was unchanged in June, as increases for both manufacturing and mining offset a decline for utilities. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, its second consecutive quarterly decrease. In June, manufacturing output advanced 0.4 percent. An increase of nearly ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.9% in June
Posted: July 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices decreased 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after recording no change in May. Falling prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports in June contributed to the overall decrease. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.7 percent in June following a 0.2-percent decline the previous ...


U.S. Retail Sales for June Increased 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.7%
Posted: July 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $519.9 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2018. Total sales for the April 2019 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in July
Posted: July 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory, rising thirteen points to 4.3. New orders were little changed, and shipments increased. Unfilled orders and inventories ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in June, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.1 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the lowest rate ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in June, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 209,000
Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in June
Posted: July 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in May
Posted: July 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

May 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $503.4 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised April level and were up 0.4 percent (±0.9 percent)* from the May 2018 level. The March 2019 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 22 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


Job Openings was little changed at 7.3 million in May
Posted: July 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires fell to 5.7 million and separations edged down to 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits and the layoffs and discharges rates were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 1.7 points to 103.3 in June
Posted: July 9, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

America’s small business owners’ optimism took a modest downturn in June, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, slipping 1.7 points to 103.3. While optimism remains at historically high levels, the June figure reverses the gain posted in May, with six components falling, three improving, and one unchanged. The Uncertainty Index ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.00% in May
Posted: July 8, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index declined in June to 109.51
Posted: July 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in June, following an increase in May. The index now stands at 109.51, down from 111.22 (a downward revision) in May. The decrease marks a 0.6 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index experienced a big drop in June, but this was primarily driven by a large negative contribution from one component – an increase in the percentage of respondents who say they find ‘Jobs Hard to Get’ in The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence ...


June Employment increased by 224,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 3.7%

Posted: July 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.7% in May
Posted: July 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in May, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.6 billion or 0.7 percent to $493.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.2 percent April decrease. Shipments, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $504.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 55.1% in June
Posted: July 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 113th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.1 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the May reading of 56.9 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 221,000
Posted: July 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending June 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 227,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in May 2019
Posted: July 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $55.5 billion in May from $51.2 billion in April (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from ...



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