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Chicago Fed National Activity points to economic growth near trend in June
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June from –0.27 in May.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.11 in June. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 45 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from May to June, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in June, down from +0.08 in May. Industrial production was unchanged in June after increasing 0.4 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.03 in June from +0.02 in May.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in June, up from –0.08 in May. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 224,000 in June after increasing by 72,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI was unchanged at –0.05 in June.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 18, 2019. At that time, June data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The May monthly index value was revised to –0.03 from an initial estimate of –0.05, and the April monthly index value was revised to –0.73 from last month’s estimate of –0.48. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the May and April monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: July 22, 2019 Monday 08:30 AM