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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201812



Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand Rather Modestly in December
Posted: December 31, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on wages and prices. Results for these questions from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey have been released together. Read the Special ...


Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 0.7% in November
Posted: December 28, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Pending home sales overall slipped in November, but saw minor increases in the Northeast and the West, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.7 percent to 101.4 in November, down from 102.1 in October. However, year-over-year contract signings dropped 7.7 percent, making this the eleventh straight month of annual ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index eased 1.0 point to 65.4 in December
Posted: December 28, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

Chicago Business Barometer Moderates to 65.4 in December Barometer Ends the Year on Strong Note; Delivery Times Lowest in a Year The MNI Chicago Business Barometer eased to 65.4 in December, down 1.0 point from November’s 66.4.

Three out of the five Barometer sub-components lost ground on the month, but solid gains in Production and Order Backlogs helped the headline index maintain most of November’s eight point rise. ...


Consumer Confidence Declined in December to 128.1
Posted: December 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in December, following a modest decline in November. The Index now stands at 128.1 (1985=100), down from 136.4 in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined slightly, from 172.7 to 171.6. The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,000 to 216,000
Posted: December 27, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 214,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index dropped from 14 to −8 in December
Posted: December 26, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity weakened in December, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index dropped from 14 in November to −8 in December, weighed down by drops in the indexes for new orders and shipments. At −25, the shipments index was its lowest reading since April 2009. However, the third ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.1% in October
Posted: December 26, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. slowed for the third month in a row.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in October, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, down from ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to an increase in economic growth in November
Posted: December 24, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.22 in November from a neutral reading in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity slowed in December
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, while expectations for future activity edged slightly higher. Price indexes were mixed, with a considerable drop in month-over-month price indexes but higher prices expected in the next six months.

The month-over-month composite index was 3 in December, down from 15 in November and 8 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slowdown in factory growth was ...


Personal Income increased 0.2%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $40.2 billion (0.2 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.8 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.4 billion ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence up in December to 98.3
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained at the same favorable levels in the December survey as it has recorded throughout the year, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Sentiment Index averaged 98.4 in 2018, the best year since 107.6 in 2000. Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index was higher in only two other time periods: 1964-65 and 1997-2000. These periods correspond to the two longest prior expansions since the mid-1800s. ...


3Q2018 GDP final estimate increased 3.4%
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.5 percent. With this third estimate for the third quarter, personal consumption ...


November New Orders for Durable Goods increased 0.8%, Ex-Trans down 0.3%
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $1.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $250.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 4.3 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Slower Growth in December
Posted: December 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Responses to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a deceleration of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indicators for the firm-level general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues indexes posted sizable decreases from last month but remained positive, while the full-time employment index remained stable. ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in December
Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:30 PM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow but remained subdued, according to results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators were positive, but their movements were mixed this month: The general activity and shipments indicators fell from their readings last month, while the ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in November
Posted: December 20, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in November to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in October, and a 0.6 percent increase in September.

“The LEI increased slightly in November, but its overall pace of improvement has slowed in the last two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent volatility in stock prices, the strengths among the leading ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 8,000 to 214,000
Posted: December 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


FOMC target funds rate increased to 2.25% - 2.50%
Posted: December 19, 2018 at 02:40 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 1.9% in November
Posted: December 19, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales increased in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®, marking two consecutive months of increases. Three of four major U.S. regions saw gains in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.9 percent from October to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.32 million in November. Sales are now down 7.0 percent from a year ago (5.72 million ...


3Q2018 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: December 19, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $124.8 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2018 from $101.2 billion (revised) in the second quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, up from ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 19, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 14, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


November Housing Starts increased 3.2%, Permits up 5.0%
Posted: December 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,328,000. This is 5.0 percent (±1.6 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,265,000 and is 0.4 percent (±1.7 percent)* above the November 2017 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in November ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2018
Posted: December 17, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2018. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $42.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $84.1 billion, and ...


Builder Confidence fell four points to 56 in December
Posted: December 17, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell four points to 56 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) as concerns over housing affordability persist. Although this is the lowest HMI reading since May 2015, builder sentiment remains in ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew at a slower pace in December
Posted: December 17, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity grew at a slower pace than in recent months in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twelve points to 10.9. New orders increased modestly, while shipments continued to climb significantly. Delivery times ...


Business Inventories up 0.6% in October
Posted: December 14, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,469.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from September 2018 and was up 6.1 percent (±1.3 percent) from ...


Industrial Production rose 0.6%
Capacity Utilization increased to 78.5%

Posted: December 14, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November after moving down 0.2 percent in October; the index for October was previously reported to have edged up 0.1 percent. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged, the output of mining increased 1.7 percent, and the index for utilities gained 3.3 percent. At 109.4 percent of its ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November Increase 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.5%
Posted: December 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.2 percent (±0.5 percent) above November 2017. Total sales for the ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.6% in November
Posted: December 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 1.6 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.5-percent rise the previous month. The November drop was primarily led by lower fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports fell 0.9 percent in November, after advancing 0.5 percent ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 27,000 to 206,000
Posted: December 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in November, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: December 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.2 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% in November
Posted: December 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 12, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications rose 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 7, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.1% in November, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: December 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in October and 0.2 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.6 points to 104.8 in November
Posted: December 11, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business optimism posted a modest decline in November with a reading of 104.8, while continuing its exceptionally strong two-year trend, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Slightly more than half of the decline was attributable to Expected Business Conditions and Expected Real Sales. Increases in compensation tied a ...


Job Openings little changed at 7.1 million in October
Posted: December 10, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged up to 5.9 million, and separations were little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...


Employment Trends Index declined slightly in November to 110.41
Posted: December 10, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined slightly in November, following an increase in October. The index now stands at 110.41, down from 110.73 in October. The change versus a year ago, however, remains positive with a 4.4 percent gain in the ETI.

“The Employment Trends Index declined slightly this month and shows some moderation after reaching its highest point so far in August,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The gloom and doom views infecting the financial markets are ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 7.75%
Posted: December 7, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-3/4 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% in October
Posted: December 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

October 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $510.1 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised September level, but were up 6.8 percent (±3.5 percent) from the October 2017 level. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary December Results at 97.5
Posted: December 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment was unchanged from last month's reading and has remained at very favorable levels since the start of 2017. In the two years from January 2017 to December 2018, the Sentiment Index was consistently above 90.0, averaging 97.5, identical to the early December reading. The last time the Sentiment Index was consistently above ...


November Employment increased by 155,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.7%

Posted: December 7, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

Household Survey Data
In November, the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Thursday)

Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported that their economies expanded at a modest or moderate pace from mid-October through late November, though both Dallas and Philadelphia noted slower growth compared with the prior Beige Book period. St. Louis and Kansas City noted just slight growth. On balance, consumer spending held steady ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 60.7% in November
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 10:10 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 106th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 60.7 percent, which is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October reading of 60.3 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 65.2 ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 4.3% in October
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in October, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $10.5 billion or 2.1 percent to $502.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent September increase. Shipments, down following fifteen consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent ...


3Q2018 Productivity Growth Increased 2.3%
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the third quarter of 2017 to ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in October 2018
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $55.5 billion in October from $54.6 billion in September (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in October, up $0.9 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 4,000 to 231,000
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 179,000 jobs in November
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Thursday)

Private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs from October to November according to the November ADP National Employment Report®.

“Although the labor market performed well, job growth decelerated slightly,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. ”Midsized businesses added nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month. This growth points to the midsized businesses’ ...


Challenger Layoffs Dropped to 53,073 in November
Posted: December 6, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Companies around the globe are beginning to announce large-scale layoff plans, possibly signaling an upcoming downturn. The number of planned layoffs announced by U.S.-based employers totaled 53,073 in November, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index declined in November to 97.1
Posted: December 5, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index declined in November. The Index now stands at 97.1 (July 2018=100), down from 99.8 in October.

Beginning with the December 2018 release, The Conference Board launched the Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index and the revised Help Wanted OnLine® Data Series. The HWOL Index measures changes over time in advertised online job vacancies, improving upon the prior Data Series’ ...



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