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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201910



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.9 points to 43.2 in October
Posted: October 31, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell 3.9 points to 43.2 in October, the lowest level since December 2015.

The index slipped further into contraction with a second straight sub-50 reading. The survey points to further weakness in business activity, with the three month average falling further to 46.9. ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.7% in 3Q2019
Posted: October 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.6 percent from June ...


Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.2%
Posted: October 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $55.7 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.3 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 5,000 to 218,000
Posted: October 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 212,000 to 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 50,275 cuts in October
Posted: October 31, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped to 50,275 in October, 20.97% higher than the 41,557 announced in September, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total is 33.5% lower than the 75,644 cuts announced in the same month last year. October was the second consecutive month during which cuts were lower in 2019 than in the corresponding month one year earlier. ...


FOMC target funds rate lowered to 1.50% - 1.75%
Posted: October 30, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a ...


3Q2019 GDP advance estimate increased 1.9%
Posted: October 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 125,000 jobs in October
Posted: October 30, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 125,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.

“While job growth continues to soften, there are certain segments of the labor market that remain strong,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The goods producing sector showed weakness; however, the healthcare industry and ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 30, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 25, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.5% in September
Posted: October 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Pending home sales grew in September, marking two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors. The four major regions were split last month, as the Midwest and South recorded gains but the Northeast and West reported declines in month-over-month ...


Consumer Confidence decreased marginally in October to 125.9
Posted: October 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased marginally in October, following a decline in September. The Index now stands at 125.9 (1985=100), down from 126.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.6 to 172.3. The ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.2% in August
Posted: October 29, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in August, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, down from 1.6% in the ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index dipped to 98.14 in October
Posted: October 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Small Business Wage Growth Gains Momentum, Job Growth Holds Steady in October. Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows small business hourly earnings growth hit 3.00 percent in October. The tight labor market positively impacted wage growth in October, according to the latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in October
Posted: October 28, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell nine points to 4.5, suggesting a moderation in output growth ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in September
Posted: October 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in September from +0.15 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in September. The index’s ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in October to 95.6
Posted: October 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained at very favorable levels during October, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The October level was nearly identical to the average during the first 10 months of 2019 (95.6) and only marginally below the average level since the start of 2017 (97.0). The recent focus of consumers has been on income and job growth, while largely ignoring other news, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity eased slightly in October
Posted: October 24, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity eased slightly in October, and expectations for future activity inched lower but remained slightly positive (Chart 1). The month-over-month price index for raw materials declined at a slower rate, while the price index for finished products expanded slightly. District firms expected prices to increase over ...


New Home Sales in September 2019 at annual rate of 701,000
Posted: October 24, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 701,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±16.1 percent)* below the revised August rate of 706,000, but is 15.5 ...


September New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 1.1%, Ex-Trans down 0.3%
Posted: October 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $248.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 6,000 to 212,000
Posted: October 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 214,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 23, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 11.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 11.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 17 ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 2.2% in September
Posted: October 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales receded in September following two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions witnessed sales drop off last month, with the Midwest absorbing the brunt of those declines.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2.2% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in September. Despite the decline, overall sales are up 3.9% from a year ago ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −9 to 8 in October
Posted: October 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −9 in September to 8 in October, as all three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. Manufacturing firms also reported an increase in backlog of ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued Expansion in October
Posted: October 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. Although the index for general activity at the firm level fell, the indexes for sales/revenues and new orders both rose. The index for full-time employment decreased. The firms continued to report ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.1% in September
Posted: October 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in September to 111.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI declined in September because of weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 214,000
Posted: October 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in October
Posted: October 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity and shipments indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the indicators for ...


September Housing Starts decreased 9.4%, Permits down 2.7%
Posted: October 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,387,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.3 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,425,000, but is 7.7 percent (±2.4 percent) above the September 2018 rate of 1,288,000. Single‐family authorizations in ...


Treasury International Capital Data for July 2019
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2019. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $70.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $121.5 billion, and net ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a slight to modest pace
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. economy expanded at a slight to modest pace since the prior report as business activity varied across the country. Reports from Districts representing states in the southern and western U.S. generally were more upbeat than Districts representing the Midwest and Great Plains. Household spending was solid on balance: nonauto retail ...


Business Inventories unch% in August
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,463.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent) from July 2019 and was up 1.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose three points to 71 in October
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose three points to 71 in October, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Sentiment levels are at their highest point since ...


U.S. Retail Sales for September Decreased 0.3%, Ex-Auto unch%
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $525.6 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2018. Total sales for the July ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 16, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Industrial Production fell back 0.4%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 77.5%

Posted: October 15, 2019 at 09:17 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production fell back 0.4 percent in September after advancing 0.8 percent in August. For the third quarter, industrial production rose at an annual rate of 1.2 percent following declines of about 2 percent in both the first and the second quarters.

Manufacturing production decreased 0.5 percent in September, with output reduced by a strike at a major manufacturer of motor vehicles. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the overall index and the manufacturing index each moved down 0.2 percent. Mining production fell 1.3 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew slightly in October
Posted: October 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity grew slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 4.0. There was only a small increase in new orders, but shipments picked up. Delivery times decreased slightly, while inventories were ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results rebound to 96.0
Posted: October 11, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sentiment rebounded in early October as consumers anticipated larger income gains and lower inflation during the year ahead. As a result, real income expectations rose to their most favorable level in two decades (see the chart). Stronger finances and lower interest rates helped to modestly bolster buying plans. These favorable trends did ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2% in September
Posted: October 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent decline the previous month. The advance in September was driven by higher fuel prices; prices for nonfuel goods edged down 0.1 percent. The price index for U.S. exports fell 0.2 percent in September, after ...


Consumer Price Index unch% in September, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: October 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in September
Posted: October 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from no change in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 210,000
Posted: October 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Job Openings little changed at 7.1 million in August
Posted: October 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged down to 5.8 million and separations were little changed at 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3 percent, and the layoffs and ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.4% in September 2019
Posted: October 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

September 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $498.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the revised August level, but were down 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* from the September ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 9, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 4, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 ...


Producer Price Index decreased 0.3% in September, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: October 8, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.1 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.4 percent for the 12 months ended ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.3 points to 101.8 in September
Posted: October 8, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The small business Optimism Index maintained a historically solid reading, but took a dip in September, falling 1.3 points to 101.8. September’s figure falls within the top 20% of all readings in the Index’s 46-year history. The survey shows no sign of a recession and indicated continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.25% in August
Posted: October 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, and nonrevoving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-3/4 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index increased in September to 110.97
Posted: October 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September, following a slight decline in August. The index now stands at 110.97, up from 110.73 (an upward revision) in August. The increase marks a 0.7 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index still remains on a flat trend since the summer of 2018. The behavior of the ETI is consistent with a continued expansion of the labor market, but perhaps at a slower rate,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. ...


September Employment increased by 136,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 3.5%

Posted: October 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in August 2019
Posted: October 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $54.9 billion in August from $54.0 billion in July (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.9 billion in August, up $0.9 billion from ...



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