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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202108


Consumer Confidence declined in August 2021 to 113.8
Posted: August 31, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August, following a decrease in July (a downward revision). The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), down from 125.1 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 147.3 from 157.2 last month. The ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 66.8 in August
Posted: August 31, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell to 66.8 in August, the lowest reading since June after climbing to a two-month high in July. Order backlogs rose sharply while production sank. Firms say the available supply of raw materials and workers isn’t sufficient to keep up with ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 2.2% in June 2021
Posted: August 31, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 18.6% annual gain in June, up from 16.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.5%, up from 16.6% in the ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index rose to 99.80 in August 2021
Posted: August 31, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

National job growth continued to rise significantly in August, according to aggregated payroll data of approximately 350,000 clients provided by Paychex. The data released in the latest report of the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows the Small Business Jobs Index gained 0.45 percent in August. At 99.80, the national ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to increase in August 2021
Posted: August 30, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped 10 points to 20.8. The reading was well above average and indicative of robust output growth. ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 1.8% in July
Posted: August 30, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales dipped modestly in July, noting two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West region registered a month-over-month gain in contract activity, while the other three major U.S. regions reported drops. All four regions saw transactions ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence decreased in August to 70.3
Posted: August 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell in August by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other monthly surveys since 1978, with the largest losses in how consumers viewed future economic prospects, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. The losses were widespread across all ...


Personal Income Increased 1.1%, Spending Increased 0.3% in July 2021
Posted: August 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $225.9 billion (1.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $198.0 billion (1.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.2 billion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued at a strong pace in August 2021
Posted: August 26, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a strong pace, and expectations for future activity remained solid. The monthly index of prices paid for raw materials continued to increase for a majority of firms in August and the index of prices received for finished goods rose to a new survey high. Price indexes vs. a year ago expanded ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 4,000 to 353,000
Posted: August 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 348,000 to 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


2Q2021 GDP preliminary estimate increased 6.3%
Posted: August 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.5 percent. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment ...


July 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 0.1%, Ex-Trans up 0.7%
Posted: August 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $257.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 0.8 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 25, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


New Home Sales in July 2021 at annual rate of 708,000
Posted: August 24, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.0 percent (±11.3 percent)* above the revised June rate of 701,000, but is 27.2 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index declined to 9 in August 2021
Posted: August 24, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index declined from 27 in July to 9 in August but remained in expansionary territory, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — decreased but remained ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest continued growth in August 2021
Posted: August 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated continued growth in business activity in the region. The indexes for firm-level general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues remained positive but declined from their July readings. Further, the indexes for prices paid and prices received edged back, while the ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 2.0% in July 2021
Posted: August 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales rose in July, marking two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions recorded modest month-over-month gains, and the fourth remained level. Figures varied from a year-over-year perspective as two regions saw gains, one witnessed a decline and one ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
Posted: August 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.53 in July from –0.01 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and three categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.9% in July 2021
Posted: August 19, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in July to 116.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June and a 1.2 percent increase in May.

“The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 29,000 to 348,000
Posted: August 19, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 375,000 to 377,000. The 4-week moving ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in August 2021
Posted: August 19, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity and shipments declined from July's readings but remained elevated, while the new orders indicator rose. Additionally, employment increases were ...


July Housing Starts Decreased 7.0%, Permits up 2.6%
Posted: August 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,635,000. This is 2.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,594,000 and is 6.0 percent (±0.9 percent) above the July 2020 rate of 1,542,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 18, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 13, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Business Inventories up 0.8% in June 2021
Posted: August 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,640.8 billion, up 1.4 percent (±0.2 percent) from May 2021 and was up 19.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell 5 points to 75 in August 2021
Posted: August 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder sentiment in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell five points to 75 in August, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The index is at its lowest point since July 2020.

Higher construction costs and supply shortages have led to significant price growth, which in turn has caused prospective buyers to experience sticker shock. The decline in the buyer traffic index to its lowest level since July 2020 is evidence that supply-side constraints ...


Industrial Production increased 0.9%
Capacity Utilization increased to 76.1%

Posted: August 17, 2021 at 09:53 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in July after moving up 0.2 percent in June. In July, manufacturing output rose 1.4 percent. About half of the gain in factory output is attributable to a jump of 11.2 percent for motor vehicles and parts, as a number of vehicle manufacturers trimmed or canceled their typical July shutdowns. Despite ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July 2021 decrease 1.1%, Ex-Auto down 0.4%
Posted: August 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $617.7 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 15.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2020. Total sales for the May 2021 through ...


Treasury International Capital Data for June 2021
Posted: August 16, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2021. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $31.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $69.3 billion, and net foreign ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand at significantly slower pace in August 2021
Posted: August 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though growth was significantly slower than last month’s record-setting pace. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-five points to 18.3. New orders increased modestly, and shipments ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary August Results declined to 70.2
Posted: August 13, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers reported a stunning loss of confidence in the first half of August. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.5% from July, to a level that was just below the April 2020 low of 71.8. Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters see Lower Current-Quarter Growth, Followed by Stronger Growth
Posted: August 13, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy for the current quarter looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 6.8 percent this quarter, down 0.7 percentage point from the prediction in the last survey. Over the next ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.3% in July 2021
Posted: August 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.3 percent in July, after advancing 1.1 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The July increase was driven by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices rose 1.3 percent in July following a 1.2-percent advance ...


Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in July, ex Fd & Engy up 1.0%
Posted: August 12, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 1.0 percent in June and 0.8 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 7.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest advance ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 12,000 to 375,000
Posted: August 12, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 375,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 385,000 to 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose slightly in July 2021 to 145.7
Posted: August 11, 2021 at 10:49 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in July and now stands at 145.7 (July 2018=100), up from 140.4 in June. The 3.8 percent increase between June and July follows a 0.2 percent increase between May and June. Overall, the Index is up 42.6 percent from a ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in July 2021
Posted: August 11, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.5 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in July, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: August 11, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 11, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 6, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


2Q2021 Productivity Growth increased 2.3%
Posted: August 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 7.9 percent and hours worked increased 5.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2020 to ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 99.7 in July
Posted: August 10, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in July to 99.7, a decrease of 2.8 points, reversing June’s 2.9-point gain. Six of the 10 components declined, three improved, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased seven points to 76, indicating owners’ views are held with more certainty than in ...


Job Openings reached a series high of 10.1 million in June
Posted: August 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The number of job openings increased to a series high of 10.1 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires rose to 6.7 million and total separations edged up to 5.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to 2.7 percent. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at ...


Employment Trends Index increased in July 2021 to 109.80
Posted: August 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased again in July, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. The index now stands at 109.80, up from 108.96 (a downward revision) in June.

“The Employment Trends Index remained on its historically strong upward trajectory, suggesting rapid job growth is likely to continue over the next several months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “This high mark comes off the back of ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 8.8% in June
Posted: August 6, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.3 percent. In June, revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 22 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.1% in June 2021
Posted: August 6, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

June 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $588.1 billion, up 2.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised May level and were up 27.5 percent (±1.4 percent) from the revised June 2020 level. The ...


July Employment rose by 943,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 5.4%

Posted: August 6, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in June 2021
Posted: August 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $75.7 billion in June from $71.0 billion in May (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $75.7 billion in June, up $4.8 billion from ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 14,000 to 385,000
Posted: August 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 400,000 to 399,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 18,942 Job Cuts in July 2021
Posted: August 5, 2021 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

As companies increasingly report difficulty finding and keeping talent and the Delta variant spurs a rise in COVID cases, U.S.-based employers announced 18,942 job cuts in July, down 93% from the 262,649 cuts announced in the same month last year. Last month's total is the lowest since in June 2000, when 17,241 job cuts were announced, ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 64.1% in July
Posted: August 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in July for the 14th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 330,000 jobs in July
Posted: August 4, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP® National Employment ReportTM. “The labor market recovery continues to exhibit uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. July payroll data reports a marked slowdown from the second quarter pace in jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief ...



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