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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 200908



Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines Continue to Moderate
Posted: August 31, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Results of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggest that factory activity continued to contract at a slower pace in August.

The production index dipped slightly. Indexes for capacity utilization, new orders and growth rate of orders ticked upward, but they remained negative. For the most part, the changes reflect fewer companies seeing declines in these measures. ...


New York Purchasing Managers business activity expanded
Posted: August 31, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New York City business activity in August expanded for the first time in three months, according to the survey taken by the National Association of Purchasing Management-New York (NAPM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index rose to 55.3 in August from 48.3 in July.

Future optimism brightened further. The Six-Month Outlook index stayed above 50 for the sixth straight month, rising to 65.5 in August from 59.3 in July. In a sign the downturn is ending, purchasing volume expanded for the first time in 20 months. The Quantity of Purchases ...


Chicago PMI reached neutral territory
Posted: August 31, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER brokethrough ten consecutive months of decline to reach neutral territory, establishing the first evidence of the possible end of the 2007-2009 Great Financial Recession.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID deflation risk ebbed;
NEW ORDERS and PRODUCTION 1st time in a year both indexes were above 50;
EMPLOYMENT and INVENTORIES indexes continued to retreat.
BUYING POLICY:
Only lead-times for M.R.O. SUPPLIES remained at historically average levels. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Edges Lower
Posted: August 28, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers increasingly expect the economy to improve in the months ahead even as they report the worst assessments of their personal finances since the surveys began in 1946. Consumers were more likely to report hearing about positive economic developments in August, and more likely to expect the economy to improve during the year ...


Personal Income increased 0.1%, Spending up 0.2%
Posted: August 28, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $4.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $25.0 billion, or 0.2 percent. In June, personal income decreased $133.4 billion, or ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity eased slightly
Posted: August 27, 2009 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity eased slightly in August as firms continued to trim inventories, but expectations for future factory activity rebounded to levels not seen since last year. Most price indexes in the survey began to level out after falling sharply through most of the ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by 0.1%
Posted: August 27, 2009 at 10:04 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 15, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by +0.1 percent following an upward revised decline of -0.1 percent in the prior week. The cash-for-clunkers program, which has inarguably skewed vehicle sales toward autos and away from trucks in the third quarter, can be seen in the details of the barometer. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 10,000 to 570,000
Posted: August 27, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 570,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 580,000. The 4-week moving average was 566,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


2Q2009 GDP preliminary estimate -1.0%
Posted: August 27, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...


New Home Sales in July at annual rate of 433,000
Posted: August 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new one-family houses in July 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.6 percent (±13.4%) above the revised June rate of 395,000, but is 13.4 percent (±12.9%) below the July 2008 ...


New orders for durable goods increased 4.9%, ex-trans 0.8%
Posted: August 26, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $7.8 billion or 4.9 percent to $168.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third increase in the last four months and the largest percent increase since July 2007. This followed a 1.3 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased ...


Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 26, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 21, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.3 percent ...


Richmond Fed's latest survey activity unchanged at 14
Posted: August 25, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In August, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index—our broadest measure of manufacturing activity—was unchanged from July's reading of 14. Among the index's components, shipments rose five points to 21, new orders fell six points to finish at 18, and the jobs index picked up five points to end ...


Consumer Confidence rebounded in August
Posted: August 25, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index ®, which had retreated in July, rebounded in August. The Index now stands at 54.1 (1985=100), up from 47.4 in July. The Present Situation Index increased slightly to 24.9 from 23.3 last month. The Expectations Index improved to 73.5 from 63.4 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Decline Slows
Posted: August 25, 2009 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through June 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index improved in the second quarter of 2009.

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded a 14.9% decline in the 2nd quarter of 2009 versus the 2nd quarter of 2008. While still a substantial negative annual rate of return, this is an improvement over the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Up 0.6% In Aug 22 Wk
Posted: August 25, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index was up 0.6% in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decrease 0.2% in the latest week as struggles ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 2.6%
Posted: August 24, 2009 at 12:00 PM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 2.6% in July, to a seasonally adjusted level of 79.7 (2002 = 100), its first increase in over a year and highest since September 2003. Revised data show the index edged down 0.3% in June, to 77.7. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) was ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index further improves in July
Posted: August 24, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.74 in July, up from –1.82 in June. All four broad categories of indicators improved in July, while three of the four continued to make negative contributions to the index. Production-related indicators made a positive contribution to the index for the first time since October 2008 and for only ...


Existing-Home Sales continues upward trend in July
Posted: August 21, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. ...


July Mass Layoffs total 2,157 actions, 206,791 workers
Posted: August 21, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Employers took 2,157 mass layoff actions in July that resulted in the separation of 206,791 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single ...


Philadelphia Fed August Outlook showing some signs of stabilizing
Posted: August 20, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The region's manufacturing sector is showing some signs of stabilizing, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered slightly positive readings this month. Although firms reported continued declines in employment and work hours this month, losses were ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased by 0.2%
Posted: August 20, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 8, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by -0.2 percent following an upward revised increase of +0.3 percent in the prior week. With the latest release, the barometer has been revised to reflect updated component weighting and a rebasing to 2005 in accordance with the BEA’s recent comprehensive revisions ...


U.S. leading economic index increased 0.6%
Posted: August 20, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. rose again in July, its fourth consecutive increase. The six-month change in the index has risen to 3.0 percent (a 6.2 percent annual rate) in the period through July, up substantially from -2.8 percent (a -5.4 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 15,000 to 576,000
Posted: August 20, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 576,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 561,000. The 4-week moving average was 570,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 19, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 14, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4.8 percent ...


July Housing starts down 1.0%, Permits down 1.8%
Posted: August 18, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000. This is 1.8 percent (±1.4%) below the revised June rate of 570,000 and is 39.4 percent (±1.8%) below the July 2008 estimate of 924,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 458,000; this ...


Producer Price Index down 0.9 percent in July
Posted: August 18, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed advances of 1.8 percent in June and 0.2 percent in May. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Down 0.9% In Aug 15 Wk
Posted: August 18, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index was down 0.9% in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decrease 0.6% in the latest ...


Builder Confidence Continues in August
Posted: August 17, 2009 at 01:00 PM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose one point in August to its highest level in more than a year, according to the latest reading of the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. Building on a two-point gain in July, the HMI reached 18 this month, ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey conditions have improved
Posted: August 17, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

For the first time in considerably more than a year, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers have improved. The general business conditions index increased 13 points, to 12.1, its highest level since November of 2007. Although the inventories index remained well below zero, the new orders ...


Forecasters See Improved Prospects for Growth, But A More Sluggish Labor Market
Posted: August 14, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Upward revisions to the rate of growth in real GDP characterize the current outlook for the U.S economy over the next four years, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project growth at an annual rate of 2.4 percent this quarter, up from their previous estimate of 0.4 percent in the ...


Industrial production increased 0.5%
Capacity Utilization up to 68.5%

Posted: August 14, 2009 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since December 2007. Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July; most of the increase was due to a jump in motor vehicle assemblies from an annual rate of 4.1 million units in ...


Consumer Price Index decreased 0.2% in July
Posted: August 14, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in July before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 2.1 percent, as a 28.1 percent decline in the energy index since its July 2008 peak has more than ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.4% in July
Posted: August 14, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent from June to July after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. This increase stemmed from a 0.3 percent increase in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings. The ...


Business Inventories down 1.1% in June
Posted: August 13, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers' shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $975.8 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.2%) from May 2009 and down 18.0 percent (±0.5%) from June ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by 0.2%
Posted: August 13, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 1, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased +0.2 percent following three consecutive weeks of decline. In the latest week the production side of the barometer came out swinging with a decline only in the lumber component. In the month of July, North American production of motor vehicles experienced ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July down 0.1%, Ex-Auto down 0.6%
Posted: August 13, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008. Total sales ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 4,000 to 558,000
Posted: August 13, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 558,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 565,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average of ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.7% in July
Posted: August 13, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.7 percent in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Decreases for both petroleum prices and nonpetroleum prices contributed to the July drop for overall import prices, which followed four consecutive monthly increases. Export prices also declined in July, falling ...


FOMC keeps target funds rate of 0 - 1/4%
Posted: August 12, 2009 at 02:15 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increases in June 2009
Posted: August 12, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $27.0 billion in June from $26.0 billion (revised) in May, as imports increased more than exports.

Goods and Services
Exports increased to $125.8 billion in June from $123.4 billion in May. Goods were $84.0 billion in June, up from $82.1 billion in May, and services were ...


Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 12, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 7, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume decreased 3.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.7 percent compared ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.7% in June
Posted: August 11, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $313.1 billion, up 0.4 percent (+/-0.7%) from the revised May level, but were down 21.0 percent (+/-1.4%) ...


2Q Productivity Growth was 6.4%
Posted: August 11, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the second quarter of 2009. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the second quarter were: 6.3 percent in the business sector and 6.4 percent in the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Flat In Aug 8 Wk
Posted: August 11, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index was flat in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales increase 0.4% in the latest ...


Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5.0%
Posted: August 7, 2009 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent in the second quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 8-1/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent. In June, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of ...


July Employment declined by 247,000,
Unemployment rate drops to 9.4%

Posted: August 7, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by another -0.1%
Posted: August 6, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending July 25, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer edged down -0.1 percent, losing ground for a third consecutive week. In the latest week inflation-adjusted chain store sales rocketed +1.0 percent with a notable pick-up in foot traffic at department stores. Consumers must have exchanged a trip to the mall for one to ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 38,000 to 550,000
Posted: August 6, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Aug. 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 588,000. The 4-week moving average was 555,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.4%
Posted: August 5, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $349.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.3 percent.

Shipments, up following ten consecutive monthly decreases, increased $4.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $358.3 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent May decrease. ...



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