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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201511



Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases for a second month
Posted: November 30, 2015 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for a second month in a row in November after exhibiting weakness in the first three quarters, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.1 The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged up from 4.8 ...


Pending Home Sales Index was mostly unchanged in October
Posted: November 30, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in October, but shifted marginally higher after two straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Gains in the Northeast and West were offset by declines in the Midwest and South.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.2 percent to 107.7 in October from an upwardly revised 107.5 in September and is now 3.9 percent above October 2014 (103.7). The index has increased year-over-year for 14 ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November
Posted: November 30, 2015 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year.

The significant decline in the Barometer is indicative of the see-saw pattern of demand seen in 2015, with output and orders shifting in and out of contraction. The November fall also suggests that activity over the final quarter of the year may well decelerate barring a ...


New Home Sales in October at annual rate of 495,000
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 495,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7 percent (±17.7%)* above the revised September rate of 447,000 and is 4.9 percent (±17.6%)* above ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence improved in November to 91.3
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The continued strength in consumer sentiment during the past two months has been due to gains among middle and lower income households, while confidence retreated among households with incomes in the upper third of the distribution. The offsetting shifts were relatively small and left the overall Sentiment Index in November nearly equal to ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up slightly by 0.1%
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending November 14 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up slightly by 0.1 percent to 97.6. This week’s timid recovery was largely explained by gains in some consumption indexes. MBA’s purchase index, for instance, climbed by 11.9 percent, after growing by only 0.1 percent in the previous week. Likewise, railroad freight ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.1%
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income increased $68.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $56.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $15.2 billion, or 0.1 percent. In September, personal income increased $27.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, ...


October New Orders for Durable Goods increased 3.0%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $6.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $239.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.8 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 260,000
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 271,000 to 272,000. The 4-week moving average was 271,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 25, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 20, 2015. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Veteran's ...


Consumer Confidence Retreats in November to 90.4
Posted: November 24, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased moderately in October, declined further in November. The Index now stands at 90.4 (1985=100), down from 99.1 in October. The Present Situation Index decreased from 114.6 last month to 108.1 in November, while the Expectations Index declined to 78.6 from 88.7 ...


Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Activity remained positive in November
Posted: November 24, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to November's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that the pace of regional nonmanufacturing activity remains positive, with firms modestly increasing their assessment of current conditions for the region. Respondents reported a decrease in activity for their firms, however, and most of the individual ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index lost 2 points to a reading of -3
Posted: November 24, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments remained sluggish and new orders declined. Hiring in the sector changed little compared to the previous month, while the average workweek shortened and wages rose mildly. Raw materials prices rose at ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in September
Posted: November 24, 2015 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.9% annual increase in September 2015 versus a 4.6% increase in August 2015. The 10-City Composite increased ...


3Q2015 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: November 24, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 3.4% in October
Posted: November 23, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

With mortgage rates remaining below 4 percent for the third straight month, existing-home sales in October were at a healthy pace but failed to keep up with September's jump, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw no gains in sales ...


Chicago Fed National Activity improved in October
Posted: November 23, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.20 in October from –0.03 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in October
Posted: November 19, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in October to 124.1 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent decline in August.

he U.S. LEI rose sharply in October, with the yield spread, stock prices, and building permits driving the increase. Despite lackluster third quarter growth, the economic outlook now appears to be improving. While the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated, the U.S. ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2%
Posted: November 19, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 7 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2 percent to 97.5, extending the weakening trend for two weeks in a row. This week’s barometer was largely driven by production indexes, in which almost all reported losses. Steel production, for instance, dropped by 1.4 percent following another loss of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 5,000 to 271,000
Posted: November 19, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 271,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 270,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 267,750. There were no special factors impacting this ...


Philadelphia November Outlook Improved but Weakness Persists
Posted: November 19, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed slight improvement this month, according to firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity was slightly positive this month, following two months in negative territory. Indexes for new orders and shipments remained negative, although ...


October Housing Starts down 11.0%, Permits up 4.1%
Posted: November 18, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,150,000. This is 4.1 percent (±1.5%) above the revised September rate of 1,105,000 and is 2.7 percent (±2.2%) above the October 2014 estimate of 1,120,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 18, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 13, 2015. This week's results included an adjustment for the Veterans ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2015
Posted: November 17, 2015 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2015. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $175.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were ...


Builder Confidence slipped three points in November to 62
Posted: November 17, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes slipped three points to 62 in November from an upwardly revised October reading on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

Even with this month’s drop, builder confidence has remained in the 60s for six straight months — a sign that the single-family housing market is making long-term headway. However, our members continue to voice concerns about the availability of lots and labor. ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.2%
Capacity Utilization fell to 77.5%

Posted: November 17, 2015 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in October after decreasing the same amount in September. In October, the index for manufacturing moved up 0.4 percent, while the index for mining fell 1.5 percent and the index for utilities dropped 2.5 percent. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production is now estimated to ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in October, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: November 17, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for food, energy, and all items less food and energy all increased modestly in October. The food index, which increased 0.4 percent in September, rose 0.1 percent in October, with four of the six major grocery store food group indexes rising. The energy index, ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in October
Posted: November 17, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings, combined with a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Continue to Worsen in November
Posted: November 16, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The November 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a fourth consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -10.7. New orders and shipments also declined, although at a slower pace than last month. Price indexes suggested that ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in September
Posted: November 13, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,320.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2%) from August 2015, but was down 2.8 percent (±0.4%) from ...


Forecasters Shave Their Growth Estimates for 2016 and 2017
Posted: November 13, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Growth in real GDP in 2016 and 2017 looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters currently see growth in the annual-average level of real GDP at 2.6 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017. These current estimates represent ...


Producer Price Index declined 0.4% in October, ex Fd & Engy down 0.3%
Posted: November 13, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved down 0.5 percent in September and were unchanged in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index fell 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in October, a ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October increase 0.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: November 13, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $447.3 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 1.7 percent (±0.7%) above October 2014. ...


Job Openings were little changed at 5.5 million in September
Posted: November 12, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.0 million and 4.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9 percent for the sixth consecutive month, and the layoffs ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2%
Posted: November 12, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending October 31 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2 percent to 97.7, dragged down by weak performances in both consumption and production indexes. For instance, chain store sales and MBA’s purchase index fell by 0.8 and 0.6 percent, respectively. As to the production side, most indexes reported losses. Auto ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchg at 276,000
Posted: November 12, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level. The 4-week moving average was 267,750, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 262,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 11, 2015 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 6, 2015.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.5% in September
Posted: November 10, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that September 2015 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $448.0 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.7%)* from the revised August level, but were down 3.9 percent ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.5% in October
Posted: November 10, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.5 percent in October, after falling 0.6 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the October decrease. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.2 percent in October, following a 0.6-percent drop ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index unchanged at 96.1
Posted: November 10, 2015 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism was unchanged in October, posting no change after a rise of only 0.2 points in September and a gain of only 0.5 points in August. So the Index remains stuck at a below average reading of 96.1. Although the labor market components posted minor declines, they held at historically strong levels but this ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in October to 129.48
Posted: November 9, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October. The index now stands at 129.48, up from 128.65 in September (after a downward revision). The change represents a 4.1 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index continues to show solid and broad-based gains, with no significant slowdown in job growth expected through the first quarter of 2016,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “Solid ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 10.00%
Posted: November 6, 2015 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7-1/2 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


October Employment increased by 271,000
Unemployment Rate dips to 5.0%

Posted: November 6, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food services and drinking places, ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3%
Posted: November 5, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending October 24 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.3 percent to 97.9. This week’s recovery was chiefly led by strong performances in some indexes. For instance, chain store sales picked up by 1.4 percent after falling for four consecutive weeks. Equally important was steel production, which bounced back by 1.3 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 16,000 to 276,000
Posted: November 5, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 276,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 262,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 259,250. There were no special factors impacting this ...


3Q2015 Productivity Growth Increased 1.6%
Posted: November 5, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.6-percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.2 percent and hours worked decreased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The decline in ...


Challenger Layoffs were 50,504 in October
Posted: November 5, 2015 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation’s employers announced plans to eliminate 50,504 workers from their payrolls in October. More than one-quarter of those were oil-related job cuts, which climbed to a six-month high, according to the latest layoff report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index had a faster rate growth at 59.1% in October
Posted: November 4, 2015 at 10:04 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 69th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 59.1 percent in October, 2.2 percentage points higher than the September reading of 56.9 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 63 percent, ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 172,300 to 5,452,500 in October
Posted: November 4, 2015 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 172,300 to 5,452,500 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.50 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2.6 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in September 2015
Posted: November 4, 2015 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $40.8 billion in September from $48.0 billion in August (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.8 billion in September, down $7.2 billion from $48.0 billion in August, revised. September exports were $187.9 ...



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