Research >> Economics
Forecasters Shave Their Growth Estimates for 2016 and 2017
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Growth in real GDP in 2016 and 2017 looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters currently see growth in the annual-average level of real GDP at 2.6 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017. These current estimates represent downward revisions to the outlook of three months ago, when the forecasters thought 2016 growth would be 2.8 percent and 2017 growth would be 2.6 percent. Notably, the forecasters have raised their growth estimates for 2018. They now see real GDP growing 2.8 percent in 2018, up from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent.
A slightly improved outlook for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 5.3 percent in 2015, before falling to 4.8 percent in 2016, 4.7 percent in 2017, and 4.7 percent in 2018. The projections for 2016 and 2017 are below those of the last survey.
On the jobs front, the panelists have revised upward their estimates for job gains in the first three quarters of 2016. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 201,500 jobs per month this quarter and 188,200 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 241,800 in 2015 and 197,000 in 2016. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: November 13, 2015 Friday 10:00 AM