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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202307


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in July 2023
Posted: July 31, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity declined in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at -4.8, a reading indicative of a modest contraction ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index up to 42.8 in July 2023
Posted: July 31, 2023 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, ticked up by 1.3 points to 42.8 in July, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, with the exception of Prices Paid, all of the sub-indices remain in contractive territory (sub-50).

• New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs all moved higher in July while Employment and Supplier Deliveries deteriorated further in contractive territory.
• The biggest contributor to the increase in the headline index was New Orders, which rose 3.4 points. However, this ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in July 2023 to 71.6
Posted: July 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment lifted 11% in June, reaching its highest level since October 2021, a sign of greater optimism as inflation continued to ease and stock market performance strengthened.

Sentiment is now about halfway between the all-time historic low of 50 from June 2022 and the February 2020 pre-pandemic reading of 101, a reflection of the material improvement in the economic experiences of consumers relative to the peak of high inflation last year, ...


Personal Income Increased 0.3%, Spending Increased 0.5% in June 2023
Posted: July 28, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $69.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $67.5 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...


Employment Cost Index up 1.0% in 2Q2023
Posted: July 28, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from March ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in July 2023
Posted: July 27, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline in July, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ prices paid for raw materials increased on a monthly and yearly basis, while prices received for finished products declined moderately month-over-month. Heading forward, firms expect input prices to ...


Pending Home Sales up 0.3% in June 2023
Posted: July 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales registered a modest increase of 0.3% in June from the previous month – the first increase since February – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The South and West posted monthly losses, while sales in the Northeast and Midwest grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines ...


2Q2023 GDP advance estimate increased 2.4%
Posted: July 27, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 7,000 to 221,000
Posted: July 27, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 7,000
from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,750, a decrease of 3,750 from
the previous week's unrevised average ...


June 2023 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 4.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.6%
Posted: July 27, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up four consecutive months, increased $13.6 billion or 4.7 percent to $302.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.0 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 6.2 ...


FOMC target funds rate raised to 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: July 26, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. ...


New Home Sales in June 2023 at annual rate of 697,000
Posted: July 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 697,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.5 percent (±12.7 percent)* below the revised May rate of 715,000, but is 23.8 percent ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 26, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 21, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 ...


Consumer Confidence rose again in July 2023 to 117.0
Posted: July 25, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved to 160.0 (1985=100) from 155.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged down to -9 in July 2023
Posted: July 25, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in July, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −8 in June to −9 in July. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also fell slightly. The shipments index edged down from −5 ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.2% in May 2023
Posted: July 25, 2023 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results forth e S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2023 show all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases for the third ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity mostly steady in July 2023
Posted: July 25, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the July Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest mostly steady nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues increased and returned to positive but low readings, while the index for new orders remained negative. Both price indexes increased this ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests little change in economic growth in June 2023
Posted: July 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.32 in June from –0.28 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.16 in June ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined by 0.7% in June 2023
Posted: July 20, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May. The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 3.3% in June 2023
Posted: July 20, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales slipped in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales varied among the four major U.S. regions, with the Northeast experiencing gains, the Midwest holding steady, and the South and West posting decreases. All four regions recorded year-over-year ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline in July 2023
Posted: July 20, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative. Furthermore, the index for shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index suggests mostly ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 9,000 to 228,000
Posted: July 20, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 9,000
from the previous week's unrevised level of 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 9,250 from
the previous week's unrevised average ...


June 2023 Housing Starts Decreased 8.0%, Permits down 3.7%
Posted: July 19, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised May rate of 1,496,000 and is 15.3 percent below the June 2022 rate of 1,701,000. Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate of 922,000; this is 2.2 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 19, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 14, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for Independence Day.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 27 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for May 2023
Posted: July 18, 2023 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for May 2023. The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $167.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $168.2 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories up 0.2% in May 2023
Posted: July 18, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,822.1 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from April 2023, but was down 1.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose 1 point to 56 in July 2023
Posted: July 18, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Low existing inventory that is keeping demand solid for new homes helped to push builder confidence up in July even as the industry continues to grapple with rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited lot availability.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in July posted a one-point gain to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the seventh straight month that builder ...


June 2023 Industrial Production declined 0.5%, Capacity Utilization stepped down to 78.9%
Posted: July 18, 2023 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production declined 0.5 percent in June for a second consecutive month but advanced 0.7 percent at an annual rate for the second quarter as a whole. Manufacturing output moved down 0.3 percent in June but rose 1.5 percent in the second quarter. In June, the indexes for mining and utilities fell 0.2 percent and 2.6 percent, ...


U.S. Retail Sales for June 2023 up 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: July 18, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.5 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2022. Total sales for the April 2023 through June ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions held steady in July 2023
Posted: July 17, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity held steady in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell six points to 1.1. New orders inched up and shipments expanded. Delivery times shortened and inventories continued to decline. Employment levels edged higher, ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary July 2023 Results increase to 72.6
Posted: July 14, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 13% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since September 2021. All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 19% surge in long-term business conditions and 16% increase in short-run business conditions. Overall, sentiment climbed for all demographic ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.2 percent in June
Posted: July 14, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The price index for U.S. imports fell 0.2 percent in June following a 0.4-percent decline in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower nonfuel prices in June more than offset higher fuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.9 percent in June, after declining 1.9 percent the ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.1% in June 2023, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: July 13, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.4 percent in May and edged up 0.1 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent for the 12 months ended in June.

In June, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 12,000 to 237,000
Posted: July 13, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 237,000, a decrease of 12,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 248,000 to 249,000. The
4-week moving average was 246,750, a decrease of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased slightly since late May
Posted: July 12, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Five Districts reported slight or modest growth, five noted no change, and two reported slight and modest declines. Reports on consumer spending were mixed; growth was generally observed in consumer services, but some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending. Tourism ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in June 2023 to 168.6
Posted: July 12, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in June to 168.6 (July 2018=100), up from a downwardly revised 165.4 in May. The 1.9 percent increase between June and May follows a 4.8 percent decrease between April and May. Overall, the Index is up 0.8 percent from one ...


Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in June 2023, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: July 12, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in June 2023
Posted: July 12, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 12, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 7, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 91.0 in June 2023
Posted: July 11, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.6 points in June to 91.0, however, it is the 18th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Inflation and labor quality are tied as the top small business concerns with 24% of owners reporting each as their single most important problem. The net percent of owners raising average ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 1.8% in May 2023
Posted: July 10, 2023 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In May, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories unch% in May 2023
Posted: July 10, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

May 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $650.2 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised April level and were down 4.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from the revised May 2022 level. ...


Employment Trends Index declined in June 2023 to 114.31
Posted: July 10, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in June to 114.31, from a downwardly revised 115.53 in May. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of ...



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