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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 200903



Consumer Confidence was flat in March
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had declined sharply in February, was flat in March. The Index now stands at 26.0 (1985=100), up from 25.3 in February. The Present Situation Index declined to 21.5 from 22.3 last month. The Expectations Index increased to 28.9 from 27.3 ...


New York Purchasing Managers business activity rose
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Less Bad Now, Future Looks Brighter. New York City business activity declined for a 14th straight month although not at the same rapid pace as the last two months, according to the survey taken by the National Association of Purchasing Management- New York (NAPM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index rose to 43.1 in March, coming ...


Chicago PMI at lowest reading since July 1980
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER descended to the lowest reading since July 1980 at 31.4

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index decline accelerated for the 2nd month;
ORDER BACKLOG index skidded to the lowest level in almost 30 years;
EMPLOYMENT indexes for February and March were the lowest two consecutive months since the series began in 1946;
BUYING POLICY: ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decline continues
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through January 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 13 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 14 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales up 1.1% In Mar 28 Wk
Posted: March 31, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index increased 1.1% in the week to March 28 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 0.2% in the latest ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Weak but Outlook Turns Up Slightly
Posted: March 30, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas’ factory activity continued to contract in March, according to firms responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Indexes for production, capacity utilization, new orders and shipments ticked upward but remained overwhelmingly negative, with more than 80 percent of respondents reporting no change or declines in these ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence largely unchanged
Posted: March 27, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence remained largely unchanged in March near the same record low levels recorded since last October. The good news is that the free fall in confidence has ended. The bad news is that consumers expect their financial situation to remain dismal for the rest of 2009. Consumers reported the largest two-month gain in confidence in ...


Personal Income down 0.2%, Spending up 0.2%
Posted: March 27, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $29.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $10.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $17.2 billion, or 0.2 percent. In January, personal income increased $20.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity declined at slower pace
Posted: March 26, 2009 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a slightly slower pace in March, and firms’ expectations for future activity improved somewhat over last month. Price indexes in the survey remained mostly negative.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in March was -21, up from -24 in February and -25 in January. Production indexes improved slightly at both durable and non-durable-goods producing plants. Most other month-over-month indexes ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -0.9%
Posted: March 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending March 14, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer reversed course and stripped out the prior week’s gains by dropping -0.9 percent. All things tied to the auto sector continue to drag down the overall economy, with car, truck and steel production accounting for -0.8 percentage points of the barometer’s decline in the ...


4Q2008 GDP final estimate -6.3%
Posted: March 26, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 8,000 to 652,000
Posted: March 26, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 652,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 644,000. The 4-week moving average was 649,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


New Home Sales in February at annual rate of 337,000
Posted: March 25, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new one-family houses in February 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent (±18.3%)* above the revised January rate of 322,000, but is 41.1 percent (±7.9%) below the ...


New orders for durable goods increased 3.4%
Posted: March 25, 2009 at 08:47 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $5.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $165.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase follows six consecutive monthly decreases, including a 7.3 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Mortgage Applications Increase as Fed’s Announcement Spurs Activity
Posted: March 25, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 20, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1159.4, an increase of 32.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 876.9 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index ...


Richmond Fed's latest survey improved to -20
Posted: March 24, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In March, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index — our broadest measure of manufacturing activity — remained negative, although it improved to -20 from February's reading of -51. Among the index's components, shipments jumped forty-one points to -15, new orders rose thirty-four points to finish at -20, and the jobs index picked up ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales fell 0.4% In Mar 21 Wk
Posted: March 24, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell by 0.4% in the week to March 21 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. This result Tuesday followed a 0.1% decrease in the prior ...


Existing-Home Sales increased in February
Posted: March 23, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales increased in February, reversing losses in January. Even so, sales activity remains relatively soft, reflecting additional layoffs and buyers waiting for housing provisions in the economic stimulus package to take effect, according to the National Association ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved in February
Posted: March 23, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –2.83 in February, up from –3.74 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators—employment, production, and consumption and housing—improved from January. However, all four categories continued to make negative contributions to the index in ...


February Mass Layoffs total 2,769 actions, 295,477 workers
Posted: March 20, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Employers took 2,769 mass layoff actions in February that resulted in the separation of 295,477 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer up 0.5%
Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending March 7, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased +0.5 percent following three consecutive weeks of decline, and coming off its lowest reading since April 1994 in the prior week. The consumer sector made a good showing in the latest week with housing activity jumping, perhaps prompted by new government measures ...


Philadelphia Fed March Outlook Reflects Further Contraction
Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The region's manufacturing sector continued to contract this month, according to firms polled for the March Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained significantly negative. Employment losses were substantial again this month, with over half of the surveyed firms reporting declines. ...


U.S. leading economic index decreased 0.4%
Posted: March 19, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. decreased 0.4 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) decreased 0.4 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in February.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. declined in February, following a slight increase in January. The monthly increase for December was revised to a small decline, while January's monthly increase was revised lower, due mainly to data revisions in manufacturers' new ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 12,000 to 646,000
Posted: March 19, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 646,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 658,000. The 4-week moving average was 654,750, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index declined 5.9%
Posted: March 18, 2009 at 12:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) declined 5.9% in January, to a seasonally adjusted level of 85.6 (2002 = 100). Revised data show the index decreased 3.9% in December, to 91.0. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) fell 2.6% in January. Regional output in January was down 21.8% from ...


4Q08 Current Account Deficit decreased
Posted: March 18, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit--the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers--decreased to $132.8 billion (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2008, the smallest deficit since the fourth quarter of 2003, from $181.3 billion (revised) in the third quarter of 2008. The decrease ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in February
Posted: March 18, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The February level of 212.193 (1982-84=100) was 0.2 percent higher than in February 2008.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners ...


Mortgage Applications Increase as Low Rates Boost Activity
Posted: March 18, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 13, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 876.9, an increase of 21.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 723.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index ...


Producer Price Index up 0.1 percent in February
Posted: March 17, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.1 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This rise followed a 0.8-percent increase in January and a 1.9-percent decline in December. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers ...


February Housing starts up 22.2%, Permits up 3.0%
Posted: March 17, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 547,000. This is 3.0 percent (±3.5%) above the revised January rate of 531,000, but is 44.2 percent (±1.2%) below the revised February 2008 estimate of 981,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales fell 0.1% In Mar 14 Wk
Posted: March 17, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 0.1% in the week to March 14 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 1.4% in the latest ...


Builder Confidence unchanged in March
Posted: March 16, 2009 at 01:00 PM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes remained unchanged in March as economic woes continued to take their toll on potential buyers, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI held steady at 9 in March, marking a fifth ...


Industrial production drops 1.4%
Capacity Utilization down to 70.9%

Posted: March 16, 2009 at 09:15 AM (Monday)

Industrial production fell 1.4 percent in February; the overall index has now declined for 4 consecutive months and for 10 of the past 12 months. At 99.7 percent of its 2002 average, output in February was 11.2 percent below its year-earlier level and was the lowest level since April 2002. Production in the manufacturing sector moved down ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey deteriorated significantly
Posted: March 16, 2009 at 08:08 AM (Monday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated significantly in March. The general business conditions index fell to a fresh low of -38.2. The new orders and shipments indexes also dropped sharply to new record lows, and the inventories index declined to its lowest level since 2001. ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.2% in February
Posted: March 13, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Import Price Index edged down 0.2 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today, as declining nonpetroleum prices more than offset an upturn in petroleum prices. Export prices also recorded a modest decrease in February, falling ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreases in January 2009
Posted: March 13, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $36.0 billion in January from $39.9 billion (revised) in December, as imports decreased more than exports.

Goods and Services
Exports decreased to $124.9 billion in January from $132.5 billion in December. Goods were $82.2 billion in January, down from $88.8 billion in December, and services were $42.7 billion in January, down from $43.8 billion in December. ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -1.1%
Posted: March 12, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending February 28, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by -1.1 percent on top of -0.6 percent in the prior week. The barometer has now fallen to its lowest reading since April 1994. In terms of diffusion, 80 percent of the barometer’s components were down in the latest week with the largest negative contribution ...


Business Inventories down 1.0% in January
Posted: March 12, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,004.0 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.4%) from December 2008 and down 14.0 percent (±0.4%) from January ...


U.S. Retail Sales for February decreased 0.1%
Posted: March 12, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $346.8 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.6 percent (±0.7%) below February 2008. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 9,000 to 654,000
Posted: March 12, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 654,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 645,000. The 4-week moving average was 650,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 11, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 6, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 723.4, an increase of 11.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 649.7 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.7% in January
Posted: March 10, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that January 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $326.1 billion, down 2.9 percent (+/-0.9%) from the revised December level and were down 15.4 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Up 0.2% In Mar 7 Wk
Posted: March 10, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index increased 0.2% in the week to March 7 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 0.9% in the latest ...


Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 0.75%
Posted: March 7, 2009 at 11:45 AM (Saturday)

Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent in January 2009. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1-1/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1/2 percent.

...


February Employment declined by 651,000,
Unemployment rate jumps to 8.1%

Posted: March 6, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months. In February, job losses were large and widespread across nearly ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -0.6%
Posted: March 5, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending February 21, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by -0.6 percent on top of -0.2 percent in the prior week. In terms of diffusion, the losers were matched by winners in the latest week with half of the barometer’s components posting gains while the other half posted declines. But in terms of magnitude the ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.9%
Posted: March 5, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in January, down six consecutive months, decreased $6.9 billion or 1.9 percent to $351.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 4.9 percent December decrease. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 31,000 to 639,000
Posted: March 5, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Feb. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 639,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 670,000. The 4-week moving average was 641,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


4Q Productivity Growth was -0.4%
Posted: March 5, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported revised fourth-quarter seasonally-adjusted annual rates of productivity change--as measured by output per hour of all persons--and revised changes for calendar year 2008.

The revised seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the fourth quarter were -0.4 percent in the business sector and -0.4 percent in the nonfarm business sector and the annual average changes were 2.7 percent in the business sector and 2.8 percent in the ...


Beige Book: Economic conditions deteriorated further
Posted: March 4, 2009 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February. Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their ...



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