Research >> Economics
Chicago PMI at lowest reading since July 1980
|
The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER descended to the lowest reading since July 1980 at 31.4
BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index decline accelerated for the 2nd month;
ORDER BACKLOG index skidded to the lowest level in almost 30 years;
EMPLOYMENT indexes for February and March were the lowest two consecutive months since the series began in 1946;
BUYING POLICY: CAPITAL EQUIPMENT lead-time shortest in more than 5 years.
The March Chicago Business Barometer™ tested the low of 33.3 set in January and failed the test. Thus the March index established a new provisional low point for marking the end of the recession . If this were an average recession, it would end four months after the low point in the Barometer, suggesting an end of the recession in July 2009. A more conservative rule would draw an analogy to the 1981-82 recession, since this is not working out to be an average recession. Using that rule, the end of the recession is projected to be 9 months after the lowest value of the Chicago Business Barometer. With March our best current estimate of that minimum, the recession is projected to end in December 2009.
Posted: March 31, 2009 Tuesday 10:00 AM