Economic activity expanded modestly from October through mid-November, similar to the pace of growth seen over the prior reporting period. Most Districts reported stable to moderately growing consumer spending, and increases in auto sales and tourism were seen across several Districts. In manufacturing, more Districts reported an expansion in ...

Pending home sales retreated in October, taking a slight step back after two prior months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast experienced a minor uptick last month, but the other three major U.S. regions reported declines in month-over-month contract activity. However, pending home sales were ...

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 3.1 points in November, hitting a two-month high 46.3.

However, the index remains in contraction for the third month straight, resulting in a further fall of the 3-month average to 45.5. ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to ...

In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $248.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.4 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Mortgage applications increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 22, 2019. This week's results are being compared to the week of ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±20.4 percent)* below the revised September rate of 738,000, but is 31.6 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following a slight decline in October. The Index now stands at 125.5 (1985=100), down from 126.1 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.5 to 166.9. The Expectations Index ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 8 in October to −1 in November, weighed down by negative readings for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — declined but remained positive. Manufacturing firms ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in September, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the ...

Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both increased, while the new orders index ticked downward. The index for full-time employment rose. The firms continued to report ...

Texas factory activity contracted slightly in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016, falling seven points ...

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.71 in October from –0.45 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in October. The index’s ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly in November, however expectations for future activity rebounded moderately (Chart 1). The month-over-month price indexes for raw materials and finished products both increased and District firms expected prices to increase over the next ...

Consumer sentiment in the November 2019 survey was nearly identical to the average level recorded since the start of 2017 (96.8 versus 97), according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

In 30 of the past 35 months, the Sentiment Index was 95 or higher, a level of optimism second only to when the index was above 100 for 34 out of 36 months from January 1998 to December 2000. ...

Existing-home sales rose in October, a slight recovery from the declines seen in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The four major U.S. regions were split last month, with the Midwest and the South seeing growth, and the Northeast and the West both reporting a drop ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in October to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both September and August.

“The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016. The decline was driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, average weekly hours, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman ...

In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 225,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The indicator for general activity increased, but the new orders, shipments, and employment indicators decreased ...

Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Veterans ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent (±2.1 percent) above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2019. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $37.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $10.6 billion, and ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.

“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. “In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,459.4 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from August 2019, but was up 0.5 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

The U.S. economy for the next four quarters looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent this quarter, down from 2.0 percent in the last survey, 1.9 percent next quarter, and 1.7 percent in ...

Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October after declining 0.3 percent in September. Manufacturing production decreased 0.6 percent in October. Much of this decline was due to a drop of 7.1 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts that resulted from a strike at a major manufacturer of motor vehicles. The decreases for ...

U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.1-percent increase the previous month. The decrease in October was driven by lower petroleum prices, which declined 3.7 percent; prices for all imports excluding petroleum fell 0.1 percent. The price index for U.S. exports ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2018. Total sales for the August ...

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index came in at 2.9, roughly in line with its level in October. New orders increased slightly, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.3 percent in September and edged up 0.1 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in October, ...

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before ...

Mortgage applications increased 9.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 8, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 13 ...

The small business half of the economy continued its remarkable economic streak, posting a 0.6 point gain in October’s Optimism Index. The 102.4 reading was buoyed by eight of the 10 Index components advancing, as talk of a recession waned in October. The Uncertainty Index declined 4 points but remains historically high heading into an ...

September 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $498.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the revised August level, but were down 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* from the September ...

The early November reading on consumer sentiment was nearly identical to last month's and the average 2019 level (95.6). Consumers did voice a slightly more positive outlook for the economy, which was offset by a slightly less favorable outlook for their own personal finances. Spontaneous negative references to tariffs were still mentioned ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...

In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in October and now stands at 100.5 (July 2018=100), down from 103.5 in September. The Index declined 2.9 percent from the prior month and is down 1.4 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, both Missouri and North Dakota decreased 3.8 percent. In the Northeast, Connecticut fell 5.2 percent and Rhode Island decreased 4.3 percent. In the South, Kentucky fell 5.2 percent and Delaware decreased 3.9 percent. In the West, Washington declined 5.8 ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 2.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the third quarter of 2018 to the ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 1, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...

The number of job openings edged down to 7.0 million (-277,000) on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 54.7 percent, which is 2.1 percentage points above the September reading of 52.6 ...

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $52.5 billion in September from $55.0 billion in August (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 ...

New orders for manufactured goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $496.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $501.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October, following an increase in September. The index now stands at 110.11, down from 110.87 (a downward revision) in September. The decrease marks a 0.4 percent decline in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index declined in October, with negative contributions from seven of its eight components. The index suggests that job growth may slow down a little in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. “Leading ...

Baby Steps in the Right Direction In October, New York City purchasing managers expressed a more positive perspective than the clear pessimism seen in September, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management New York.

New York Metro Current Business Conditions rose by 4.9 points to 47.7 in October, up from September's 40 month low of 42.8, but still not enough to reach the breakeven point of 50.0. Current Business Conditions and Quantity of Purchases are the only two indices that remain ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during September 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.6 billion, 0.5 percent (±1.0 percent)* above the revised August estimate of $1,287.1 billion. The September figure is 2.0 percent (±1.8 percent) below the September 2018 estimate of $1,319.7 billion. During the first ...