The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did just three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.3 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 3.3 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect slower real GDP growth in 2010, 2011, and 2013.The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.9 percent in 2010, down from their prediction of 3.3 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.7 percent in 2011, 3.6 percent in 2012, and 2.6 percent in 2013.

The downward revision to growth is accompanied by weaker conditions in the labor market. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.6 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.2 percent in 2012, and 7.3 percent in 2013. These estimates are higher than the projections in the last survey. On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised downward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 8,000 jobs per month this quarter and 114,100 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 45,200 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 143,800 per month. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

The outlook for the U.S. economy over the next few quarters looks stronger now than it did just three months ago, according to 44 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.3 percent over each of the next two quarters, up from the previous estimate of 2.7 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect more robust real GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, but slower real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013.The forecasters see real GDP growing 3.3 percent in 2010, up from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2011, 3.2 percent in 2012, and 2.9 percent in 2013.

Stronger conditions in the labor market accompany the outlook for growth. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.6 percent in 2010, before falling to 8.9 percent in 2011, 8.0 percent in 2012, and 7.1 percent in 2013. On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised upward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 207,300 jobs per month this quarter and 120,500 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark strong upward revisions from the previous survey. Over the first half of 2011, jobs will grow at an average rate of 215,500 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a lowered monthly rate of 37,500 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 184,000 per month, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

The U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent over each of the next five quarters, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see stronger growth over the next three quarters than they projected in the survey of three months ago, but some of that upward revision will come at the expense of slower growth at year's end. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP growing 3.0 percent in 2010, up from their prediction of 2.4 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.9 percent in 2011, 3.4 percent in 2012, and 3.1 percent in 2013.

The labor market in the near term looks a bit stronger now than it did three months ago. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.8 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.3 percent in 2012, and 7.3 percent in 2013. On the jobs front, upward revisions for the growth in jobs over the next two quarters of 2010 are to be followed by downward revisions over the second half of the year. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 600 jobs per month this quarter and 117,600 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark upward revisions from the previous survey. Over the second half of 2010, jobs will grow at an average rate of 96,000 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 59,000 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 142,000 per month.

The U.S. economy will grow over each of the next five quarters, according to 41 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP falling 2.5 percent in 2009 before rebounding in each of the following three years. Real GDP will grow 2.4 percent in 2010, 3.1 percent in 2011, and 3.3 percent in 2012. As the table below shows, these estimates are a bit higher than those the forecasters projected in last quarter's survey.

The labor market looks weaker now than it did three months ago. Unemployment is now seen at an annual average of 9.3 percent in 2009 and 10 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011 and 8.3 percent in 2012. These estimates mark upward revisions from the forecasters' previous projection. Likewise, growth in jobs looks weaker. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment falling at a rate of 160,000 jobs per month this quarter and 35,000 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark downward revisions from the previous survey. The forecasters see jobs beginning to grow in the second quarter of 2010. Over the second half of the year, jobs will grow at a rate of 150,000 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 427,000 in 2009 and a further loss of 70,000 per month in 2010. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

Upward revisions to the rate of growth in real GDP characterize the current outlook for the U.S economy over the next four years, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project growth at an annual rate of 2.4 percent this quarter, up from their previous estimate of 0.4 percent in the last survey. The forecasters expect steady growth to follow over each of the following four quarters. They have also raised their estimates for growth roughly 0.2 percentage point over each of the next four years. Annual-average over annual-average growth is now seen rising from -2.6 percent this year (-2.8 percent previously) to 3.2 percent in 2012 (3.0 percent previously), as shown in the table below.

Upward revisions to unemployment and downward revisions to job growth accompany the current outlook for growth. The unemployment rate will average 9.2 percent this year, up from the forecasters' previous projection of 9.1 percent. Unemployment is seen rising to 9.6 percent next year. The forecasters see unemployment falling in 2011 and 2012 — but to levels higher than they predicted previously. Unemployment will average 8.9 percent in 2011, up from 8.7 percent in the last survey, and 8.0 percent in 2012, up from 7.7 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment will fall at a rate of 416,000 jobs per month this year and 25,000 jobs per month in 2010. Previously, the forecasters projected job losses in 2010 at a rate of 14,000 jobs per month

The economy looks weaker now than it did in February, according to 51 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project lower real GDP growth and higher unemployment rates in 2009 and 2010 than they did three months ago. In the current year, the forecasters see the economy contracting at a rate of 2.8 percent (annual-average over annual-average) — a downward revision of 0.8 percentage point from their forecast of 2.0 percent made three months ago. The panelists expect the economy in 2010 to expand 2.0 percent, down from their projection of 2.2 percent in the last survey. In answer to this survey's special questions (described in the section below), the forecasters report that real GDP will expand 2.7 percent in 2011 and 3.0 percent in 2012. On a quarterly basis, the forecasters expect a contraction at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the current quarter, followed by growth over the next four quarters, from 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009 to 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010.

An upward revision to the forecast for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for economic growth. The forecasters predict that unemployment will increase from 9.1 percent this quarter to 9.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010. Previously, unemployment was forecast to rise from 8.3 percent to 9.0 percent over the same period. Unemployment is expected to average 9.1 percent this year and rise to 9.6 percent in 2010. In answer to special questions, the forecasters predict that annual-average unemployment will fall to 8.7 percent in 2011 and 7.7 percent in 2012. On the jobs front, the forecasters project job losses in the current quarter at a rate of 521,500 per month. They also see a reduction in jobs of 282,500 per month in the third quarter and 104,700 in the fourth quarter of 2009. They previously projected monthly job losses of 311,200, 202,100, and 43,000 in the second quarter, the third quarter, and the fourth quarter of 2009, respectively. On an annual-average basis, jobs are expected to decline 422,600 per month in 2009 and 13,900 in 2010.