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Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Show Expansion Slows
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April’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State improved modestly. Although the general business conditions index fell fourteen points, it remained positive at 6.6. The new orders and shipments indexes also remained positive, but showed only a small increase in orders and shipments. The prices paid index inched downward but remained high, and the prices received index climbed six points to 19.3. The index for number of employees rose to its highest level in nearly a year, indicating a significant increase in employment levels, while the average workweek index fell to a level that indicated only a small increase in hours worked. Future indexes remained quite positive, suggesting a strong and persistent degree of optimism about the six-month outlook.
In a series of supplementary survey questions—previously posed in August 2011 and March 2007—respondents were asked how much difficulty they had experienced finding workers proficient in mathematical, computer, interpersonal, and other workplace skills. As was the case last August, the most widespread difficulties were cited for advanced computer skills. One skill category that has reportedly grown harder to find is basic math. Interestingly, respondents reported at least as much difficulty finding workers with each of these skills than they did prior to the recession, in March 2007. Responses to other supplemental questions indicated that firms expected wages to rise by 2.3 percent, on average, over the next twelve months, and that, for more than a third of the firms, retaining skilled workers would become increasingly difficult over the next twelve months.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s headline index fell significantly in April, though it still indicated a modest increase in activity. The general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to 6.6, suggesting that while growth continued, the pace slowed over the month. The new orders index was little changed at 6.5, indicating a modest increase in orders, and the shipments index fell twelve points to 6.4, indicating a slower pace of growth for shipments. The unfilled orders index fell six points to -7.2, and the delivery time index dropped three points to 4.8. The inventories index was little changed at 1.2, suggesting that inventory levels held steady.
Posted: April 16, 2012 Monday 08:30 AM