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Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Expanded
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity expanded in New York State in January. The general business conditions index climbed five points to 13.5. The new orders index rose eight points to 13.7 and the shipments index inched up to 21.7. The prices paid index was positive and slightly higher than it was last month while the prices received index jumped twenty points to 23.1, indicating a significant pickup in selling prices. Employment indexes were positive and higher, pointing to higher employment levels and a longer average workweek. Future indexes conveyed a high degree of optimism about the six-month outlook, with the future general business conditions index rising nine points to 54.9, its highest level since January 2011.
On a series of supplementary survey questions, 51 percent of respondents indicated that they expect their workforces to increase over the next six to twelve months, while just 9 percent predicted declines in the total number of workers—results noticeably more positive than in the June 2011 survey. The current results were slightly more positive for larger establishments (150 or more employees) than for smaller ones. High expected sales growth was widely deemed to be the most important factor among those who planned to add workers. When asked about anticipated changes in wages per worker, 80 percent of respondents indicated that wages would increase by less than 5 percent and almost all of the remaining 20 percent said wages would stay about the same. When asked about changes in benefits per worker, however, a sizable proportion, 37 percent, estimated that increases would exceed 5 percent.
Business conditions improved in January, with the general business conditions index rising five points to 13.5. This index has been on a clear upward trend since October 2011. In January, 35 percent of respondents indicated that conditions improved over the month while 22 percent reported a worsening. The new orders index climbed eight points to 13.7 and the shipments index inched up two points to 21.7. The unfilled orders index rose ten points but remained negative at -5.5. The delivery time index fell to -3.3, suggesting a slight decrease in delivery times. The inventories index rose into positive territory for the first time in several months, climbing ten points to 6.6, indicating that inventory levels increased modestly.
Posted: January 17, 2012 Tuesday 08:30 AM