Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 0.4%
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For the week ending February 11, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by -0.4 percent, erasing a gain of prior two weeks. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales dropped sharply by -2.0 percent in the latest week, and all other indexes of consumption sector decreased, dragging down the business barometer by roughly -0.6 percentage points combined. As for the production side, auto and lumber production increased and electric output rebounded, helping mitigate the weakness in the consumption sector in the week ending February 11th.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +0.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, declined by -0.1 percent in the week ending February 11th, while its year-over-year growth rate remained +1.0 percent for seven weeks.
Posted: February 23, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM