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Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests a pickup in economic growth in January 2022
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.69 in January from +0.07 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, and two categories improved from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to +0.42 in January from +0.46 in December.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to +0.33 in January from +0.45 in December. Fifty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 28 made negative contributions. Forty-seven indicators improved from December to January, while 37 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 15 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.29 to the CFNAI in January, up from –0.10 in December. Industrial production increased 1.4 percent in January after decreasing 0.1 percent in December. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved down to +0.03 in January from +0.11 in December.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.14 to the CFNAI in January, down slightly from +0.19 in December. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 467,000 in January after rising by 510,000 in December, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0 percent in January from 3.9 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI rose to +0.23 in January from –0.14 in December.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of February 22, 2022. At that time, January data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The December monthly index value was revised to +0.07 from an initial estimate of –0.15, and the November monthly index value was revised to +0.51 from last month’s estimate of +0.44. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the December monthly index value was primarily due to the latter, while the revision to the November monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: February 24, 2022 Thursday 08:30 AM