Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer unchanged%
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For the week ending July 30, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat after a drop of -0.8 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales decreased following five straight weeks of gains. Box office receipts also fell as the last episode of Harry Potter slipped off the top, while mortgage application volume turned around following three consecutive weeks of declines. On the production side, seasonally adjusted auto production was down consecutively, after a surge in the prior two weeks. The production of trucks and lumber, however, rebounded in the latest week. All in all, the Business Barometer improved markedly in July, but the August outlook is obscured by the impact of the U.S. debt downgrade.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.8 percent in the week ending July 30, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was down -0.1 percent consecutively in the latest week ending July 30th, while its year-over-year growth rate was up +2.0 percent for three consecutive weeks.
Posted: August 11, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM