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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points to 96.9
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The Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points from March to 96.9, this in spite of a quarter of virtually no economic growth. Unfortunately, the Index remained below the January reading. Nine of the 10 Index components gained or were unchanged, only real sales expectations were weaker. But this still leaves the Index below its historical average, oscillating between 95 and 98 but never breaking out except for December, when the Index just tipped past 100, only to fall again.
So 2015 got off to a slow start with GDP increasing only 0.2 percent at first “guess”. Trade data will apparently depress that further, perhaps producing a negative print, although more consumer spending may be found to keep growth above the 0 line. For a different perspective, GDP has grown 3 percent from the end of Q1 2014 to the end of Q1 2015, reflecting the volatility in growth that has occurred. Growth for the year will improve, but this was not a good start.
Job growth certainly hit a major speed bump. Weather, sure, but not in major GDP states like Texas, Florida, and California. The plunge in oil prices certainly adversely impacted job growth in the shale states. The West Coast dock strike? Maybe. But hard to figure out how many jobs might have been lost due to delays, certainly temporary losses that will be recovered when the goods flow. NFIB indicators have small business job growth fairly solid and the job openings numbers continue to signal a decline in the unemployment rate.
Financial markets remain on edge for signs of a Federal Reserve rate hike. A zero rate is looking even more absurd with 3 percent growth for the past 12 months. The Fed could argue that growth would have been worse if rates were higher, but more and more observers doubt the validity of that proposition. Low rates (and lower rates) won’t drive more spending, everyone has their “cheap loan”. Rather, it will require an improvement in economic and political prospects to induce economic agents to pick up the pace of hiring and investment spending. Meantime, investors (Gamblers? Are there any investors?) will continue to play the Fed’s waiting/guessing game. The most recent murmurs from the Fed suggest they are recognizing the distortions in asset prices that buying trillions of dollars of risk-free assets (and hoarding them) have created.
The small business growth engine appears to be accounting for more of the real growth (what little there is) as economic activity among the larger firms fades. Solid growth (over 3 percent) will require good performances from both sectors and that will be elusive this year.
Posted: May 12, 2015 Tuesday 07:30 AM