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Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests a slight decrease in economic growth in February 2022
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.51 in February from +0.59 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in February, but two categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.35 in February from +0.37 in January.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to +0.32 in February from +0.29 in January. Sixty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 24 made negative contributions. Fifty-one indicators improved from January to February, while 34 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.22 to the CFNAI in February, down slightly from +0.25 in January. Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in February after rising 1.4 percent in January. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.04 in February.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.28 to the CFNAI in February, up from +0.10 in January. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 678,000 in February after increasing by 481,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8 percent in February from 4.0 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI fell to –0.04 in February from +0.21 in January.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of March 17, 2022. At that time, February data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The January monthly index value was revised to +0.59 from an initial estimate of +0.69, and the December monthly index value was revised to –0.04 from last month’s estimate of +0.07. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the January and December monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: March 21, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM