Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased 0.2%
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For the week ending September 17, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rebounded, increasing +0.2 percent after the decline of -0.2 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales decreased by -1.2%, which largely offset their gain in the week ending September 10th. MBA’s mortgage applications fell sharply as well. All in all, the consumption side dragged the barometer down by -0.3 percent in the latest week. On the production side, however, five production indices out of six posted gains and contributed to a lift in the barometer index.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.5 percent in the week ending September 17, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the latest week ending September 17th, after declining by -0.1 percent in the prior week, while its year-over-year growth rate slowed to +1.2 percent for two weeks in a row.
Posted: September 29, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM