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Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in April 2022
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.47 in April from +0.36 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April, and three categories improved from March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.48 in April from +0.49 in March.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.48 in April from +0.42 in March. Sixty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 23 made negative contributions. Forty-seven indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.26 to the CFNAI in April, up slightly from +0.20 in March. Industrial production increased 1.1 percent in April after moving up 0.9 percent in March. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged up to +0.04 in April from –0.01 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.10 to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.17 in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in April. Yet, on balance, employment-related indicators weakened slightly from March. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.08 in April from +0.01 in March.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 19, 2022. At that time, April data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index value was revised to +0.36 from an initial estimate of +0.44, and the February monthly index value was revised to +0.59 from last month’s estimate of +0.54. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the March and February monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
Posted: May 23, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM