Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased 0.1%
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For the week ending March 12, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer gave up just -0.1 percent after a jump of +0.7 percent in the prior week. The latest reading from the barometer does not reflect any possible impact to U.S. factory activity from the Japan earthquake, but spillover effects could begin showing up as early as next week’s report. However, most U.S. factories that rely on Japan for supplies (most notably the automotive and electronics industries) operate with a certain amount of back stock at all times. Still, we’ve read anecdotal reports of factories cutting shifts to stretch supplies, and GM announced the closing of a plant that makes two of their lowest selling trucks. As such, there should be downward pressure on at least the production side of the barometer in the coming weeks.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer slowed to +3.1 percent in the week ending March 12, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
Posted: March 24, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM