Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased 0.5%
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For the week ending June 18, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell -0.2 percent after declining by -0.5 percent in the prior week, weighted down by declines in chain store sales, freight car loading, and electricity output. A gain in auto production partially offset the declines. In May and April real personal consumption expenditure decreased by -0.1 percent. In the latest week ending June 18, 2011 inflation-adjusted chain store sales declined two weeks in a row. Box office receipts and mortgage activities were down as well, showing a general weakness on the consumption side against the backdrop of unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent and higher food and energy prices.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer slowed to +1.4 percent in the week ending June 18, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was down -0.1 percent in the latest week ending June 18th, while its year-over-year growth rate slowed to +1.5 percent.
Posted: June 30, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM