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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth picked up in January 2023
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Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.23 in January from –0.46 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, and three categories improved from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.26 in January from –0.34 in December.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to –0.10 in January from –0.15 in December. Fifty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 34 made negative contributions. Fifty-one indicators improved from December to January, while 33 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.04 to the CFNAI in January, up from –0.56 in December. Industrial production was unchanged in January after falling 1.0 percent in December. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.06 in January from +0.07 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.12 to the CFNAI in January, up slightly from +0.09 in December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.4 percent in January from 3.5 percent in December. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI increased to +0.13 in January from –0.06 in December.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of February 21, 2023. At that time, January data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The December monthly index value was revised to –0.46 from an initial estimate of –0.49, and the November monthly index value was revised to –0.56 from last month’s estimate of –0.51. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the December and November monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: February 23, 2023 Thursday 08:30 AM