Research >> Economics
U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2%
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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 97.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in September, and a 0.7 percent increase in August.
The modest rise in the Leading Economic Index in October follows the strong advances recorded in the prior two months, which helps lift the six-month annualized growth rate to 5.1 percent from 3.7 percent in the previous six months. The recent increase in the index supports our forecast that the U.S. economy is poised to grow somewhat faster at 2.3 in 2014 compared to 1.6 percent in 2013. Within the details, the sub-indexes contributing positively to growth are the financial, housing and manufacturing variables. Restraining growth is the ongoing caution of businesses that continue to keep tight reins on capital expenditures.
The US LEI has increased for four consecutive months. Overall, the data reflect strengthening conditions in the underlying economy. However, headwinds still persist from the labor market, accompanied by business caution and concern about federal budget battles. The biggest challenge to date has been relatively weak consumer demand, which continues to be restrained by weak wage growth and slumping confidence.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 106.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3 percent in October to 119.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in September and a 0.2 percent increase in August.
Posted: November 27, 2013 Wednesday 10:00 AM