Research >> Economics
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 1.0%
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Data through April 2014, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted annual gains of 10.8%. This is a significantly lower rate when compared to last month. Nineteen of the 20 cities saw lower annual gains in April than in March. California (Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco) saw their returns worsen by approximately three percentage points. Boston was the only city to see its annual rate improve.
The 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 1.0% and 1.1% in April. Seven cities – Cleveland, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco – reported lower returns than in March. Boston rose 2.9%, its largest monthly gain in over its 27 years of history. San Francisco rose 2.3%, its sixth consecutive price increase.
April 2014, the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year increases of 10.8%. Although home prices rose in April, the annual gains weakened. Overall, prices are rising month-to-month but at a slower rate. Last year some Sunbelt cities were seeing year-over-year numbers close to 30%, now all are below 20%: Las Vegas (18.8%), Los Angeles (14.0%), Phoenix (9.8%), San Diego (15.3%) and San Francisco (18.2%). Other cities around the nation are also experiencing slower price increases.
While the annual numbers worsened, the monthly figures were seasonally strong. Five cities – Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco and Seattle – reported monthly gains of 2% or more. Dallas and Denver gained 1.6% and continue to set new peaks. Boston and Charlotte are less than 10% away from their peaks.
Near term economic factors favor further gains in housing: mortgage rates are lower than a year ago, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady until mid-2015 and the labor market is improving. However, housing is not back to normal: prices are being supported by cash sales, low inventories and declining foreclosure and REO sales. First time home buyers are not back in force and qualifying for a mortgage remains challenging. The question is whether housing will bounce back before the Fed begins to tighten sometime next year.
As of April 2014, average home prices across the United States are back to their summer 2004 levels. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 18-19%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 25-26% for the 10-City and 20-City Composites.
All cities continue to post positive year-over-year returns. Boston was the only city to show improvement in its annual rate – it went from 8.3% in March to 9.0% in April. After posting 13 months of annual gains of over 20%, San Francisco saw its rate dip below 20%.
In April, all cities saw prices increase with twelve cities reporting higher returns than last month. Boston gained the most with an increase of 2.9%, its highest month-over-month gain. San Francisco and Seattle trailed at +2.3%. At the bottom of the list, New York gained only 0.1%. Dallas and Denver continue to set new peaks while Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 value.
Posted: June 24, 2014 Tuesday 09:00 AM