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Chicago Fed National Activity Index slower in May
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.45 in May from +0.08 in April. Of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index, three deteriorated from the previous month and two made negative contributions to the index in May.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from –0.13 in April to –0.34 in May—its third consecutive reading below zero and its lowest value since June 2011. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index also moved lower in May, declining to –0.20 from +0.06 in the previous month. This marks the first time the CFNAI Diffusion Index was negative since June 2011. Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 53 made negative contributions. Forty-seven indicators improved from April to May, while 36 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Posted: June 25, 2012 Monday 08:30 AM