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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests a pickup in economic growth in July 2022
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Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July from –0.25 in June. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and all four categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.09 in July.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to –0.05 in July from –0.08 in June. Fifty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in July, while 30 made negative contributions. Fifty-five indicators improved from June to July, while 30 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.16 to the CFNAI in July, up from –0.19 in June. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.7 percent in July after decreasing 0.4 percent in June. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.01 in July from –0.06 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.09 to the CFNAI in July, up from a neutral value in June. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June, and nonfarm payrolls rose by 528,000 in July after increasing by 398,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to +0.01 in July from a neutral value in June.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of August 18, 2022. At that time, July data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The June monthly index value was revised to –0.25 from an initial estimate of –0.19, and the May monthly index value was revised to –0.29 from last month’s estimate of –0.19. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the June and May monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: August 22, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM