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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by 0.1%
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For the week ending March 10, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by +0.1 percent following a decline of -1.1 percent in the prior week. Auto and truck production was neutral to the barometer index, while lumber production dropped significantly in the latest week. However, the barometer index managed to turn up slightly helped by the consumption sector. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased, albeit modestly, despite a steep rise in retail gasoline prices to $3.829/gallon for regular grade as of March 12. MBA’s mortgage applications increased as well for three consecutive weeks in the week ending March 10th, showing a sign of stabilization in housing market.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +0.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, fell by -0.1 percent in the week ending March 10th, while its year-over-year growth rate remained +0.9 percent for eleven weeks.
Posted: March 22, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM