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Paychex-IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.89 in September 2023
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According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, hourly earnings growth has slowed to 3.79% in September 2023, a pace not seen since September 2021 (3.77%). The Small Business Jobs Index — which measures the rate of small business job growth in the U.S. — shows 98.89 in September, a -0.21% change from August.
“Wage inflation continues to cool, and the jobs index dips below 99 for September,” said James Diffley, chief regional economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence. “These indicators are not precursors of a recession but instead indicate a tighter supply of available workers.”
“Our data indicates a continued stable macroeconomic environment for small businesses, which are adding workers at a sustained but modest rate,” said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. “Small businesses, like those represented in our Employment Watch, are managing their organizations in a tight labor market that’s being driven by a lack of worker supply rather than a lack of hiring demand. Employers facing this challenge may find it helpful to turn to trusted business partners like Paychex to help advise and educate them on how to effectively attract and retain talent in this environment.”
In further detail, the September report showed:
- As the post-pandemic surge has cooled, the rate of small business job growth has slowed in 16 of the last 19 months – from a record high 101.33 in February 2022 to 98.89 in September 2023. The current rate remains above the level seen just prior to the start of the pandemic.
- In line with hourly earnings growth, weekly earnings growth has steadily decreased since early 2023, standing at 3.44% in September.
- The West leads regional hourly earnings growth for the fourth-straight month and remains the only region above four percent (4.23%).
- West Coast metros San Diego (4.96%), Seattle (4.79%), and Riverside (4.45%) lead top U.S. metros in hourly earnings growth in September.
- North Carolina ranks first in small business employment growth among states with a slight uptick (0.07%) to 100.76 in September.
- Houston (102.06) ranks first among states for the 11th consecutive month and is two points higher than the next strongest metro. Miami (100.20) and Chicago (100.06) rank second and third among the nation’s top 20 metros, respectively.
- September marks the first month in more than two years that Leisure and Hospitality job growth (98.85) is slower than the national pace, but the sector continues to lead in hourly earnings growth (4.35%).
Posted: October 3, 2023 Tuesday 08:30 AM