Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer up by 0.1%
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For the week ending March 17, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by +0.1 percent for two consecutive weeks. Retail gasoline prices continued to rise to $3.867/gallon for regular grade as of March 19th, and some areas of the country are already seeing $4.00/gallon or more. Still, in the face of higher gas prices inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased at a solid pace for three weeks in a row. Unseasonably warm weather might have bolstered demand for spring apparel. As for the production side, a bounce back in lumber production was offset by decrease in steel production in the latest week.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +0.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the week ending March 17th, while its year-over-year growth rate remained +0.9 percent for twelve weeks.
Posted: March 29, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM