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Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened in August
Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.53 in August from –0.11 in July. None of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made a positive contribution in August.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to –0.42 in August from –0.27 in July. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
On September 20, 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that June 2009 marked the end of the recent recession. By comparison, the CFNAI first indicated an increasing likelihood that the recession had ended in its October 26, 2009, release.
Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the index in August, down from +0.23 in July. Manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent in August after rising 0.7 percent in the previous month.
Posted: September 27, 2010 Monday 08:30 AM